Number crunchin' - do we change them all? Assuming 1 in the original 3 was a spy means we have to pick 4 people who all have a 4/7 chance of being good guys. Chance of success is 10.6%. If 2 of the 3 were spies, our chance of success is 25.9%. If 3 out of the 3 were spies, that goes up to 53.9%. However, if 3 out of the 3 were spies, that means Teacups is a spy, and it doesn't make any sense for him to throw all the eggs in. So really, we are looking at roughly a 15-20% chance of this working. Answer: no
Teacups X Heef Ritchie Weeman Tart Howe Captain X Morgie X Blunder Furball So, that's how things stand. With the 3 chosen last round, I suspect we have a 2 in 3 chance of randomly picking someone who isn't a rebel. Whilst picking a second, I suspect the chance is 50/50. With the remaining 7, if my probabilities are right, we have a 4 in 7 chance of picking a goodie. And then 3 in 6. And then 2 in 5 if we've been lucky. So, if I've got to pick 4, in probability terms, am I not best off picking 2 from the original group and then 2 more at random after that? 2/3 - 1/2 - 4/7 - 3/6 As opposed to 2/3 - 4/7 - 3/6 - 2/5
I'm thinking: TKP Morgie Myself Blunder But I'm undecided on tkp as Blunder made a valid point earlier about the leader picking themselves regardless of the situation.
Yeah but if you put two spies in the group and the mission fails then you're increasing the likelihood of neither of them getting selected for the next mission.
ITSTL. Peculiar reactions. Especially morgie's. Seems a pretty generic reaction. I don't know, I would have a lot more to say that "Oooh." if I was incriminated in some way from a group. Especially if I know I'm innocent, I'd be wary of the other two and not just post "Oooh." and then never reply on the thread despite being online. The best I can come up with anyone, as little as that is.
Absolutely. I wasn't trying to say I'm innocent. I just think it's natural to take a look at the other two because no-one is going to say they're a spy.
Pick a completely new 4. Picking someone who was involved in the first mission means there's too much potential for misinformation. If Teacups is picked again and the mission fails again it doesn't necessarily mean that he's the spy. Likely, but not impossible.
If we pick a completely new four, then the odds of success are much lower as we have to hit four non-baddies head on (under the reasonable assumption that there was only 1 baddie in the first grouping).
TKP Morgie Myself Blunder Nothing has particularly changed my mind. I think that based on probabilities, we have the best chance we two originals and two news. Hence, I'm selecting the above list.
Okay, everyone to PM me when you've made up your mind either way. This voting/discussion period will last as long as it remains active.
