The Wire Mafia III

Sigh.

Shambolic.

Don't think we have much to go on so will start re-reading everything on the thread. A bunch of seemingly police power roles overflowing in this thread for no apparent reason. >_>

 

Well, yes. But there is no need to paint a target on your back if there is no useful information to impart. You can see how well that worked out for Uppercut.

 

Yeah character claiming was so odd. I'm a bit annoyed at myself for getting sucked into the janitor theory. I convinced myself into it the more time went on and really should have known Uppercut would be smarter than to jump into such a simple/obvious play.

 

The way I am looking at the Escath lynch is like this: Barksdale (whoever they are) know for certain that Escath is not one of them so he is either Stansfield or Police and with Gaz's info most likely Stansfield. In any case, they don't really care and would love to see the back of him and would really love that lynch. Fewer numbers against them, they are one step closer to their win.

Stansfield obviously have the most to lose and would be pretty annoyed with Escath withdrawing and a few of them might even joined the lynch at the end because there was no chance for Escath or even his potential replacement surviving very long if it even got there.

Police have the least information from the group (Gazza excepted if he is Police) and thus have a bit of a harder decision to make throughout the lynch. Can Gazza's reports be trusted? And is it worth waiting for a potential replacement to come on? Maybe they can put up the defence that Escath couldn't put up. It's pretty rare in mafia games where someone who has a reasonable role claim/character claim with no CC to get lynched this early on. So what Escath did there definitely put a spanner in the works for Police who have the least information. If Escath was put under pressure and came up with a shitty role claim/character claim/half arsed defence then they can vote with more confidence. There was always the doubt that Gaz had a tampered/not reliable report/character (there was shitty cops in the last game of The Wire) and Escath was actually a green who basically wouldn't defend himself despite having the tools to do so effectively.

Anyway I've had a look at most people's posts. Arheiner has posted twice and the posts seemed more like ah fuck I need to post something for the sake of it or people will think I'm not active and think I'm suspicious. Funnily enough, I am a bit sus on Arheiner. Then again, I believe this is how he plays most games. Teja has also posted a couple of times (not exactly notorious for putting up huge posting numbers in mafia or in general) and has soft claimed tracker?

BigDougy and Number11 seemed pretty keen on the Escath lynch (among a few others) from what I've read. Doesn't mean they are baddies but something I'm going to be wary of.

As for the morgie thing, that's probably morgie being morgie and not being attentive enough. If his lists don't come soon, he will have to be lynched though.

TL;DR: Nothing substantial but just ramblings through digging up posts in the thread. Might be useful for the future so I'm posting it here for now. Feel free to tear apart the clutching at straws logic.

 

So far we have one for Furball and one for morgie. I'm convinced by neither unfortunately. Furball actively avoiding that Escath lynch actually makes him less suspicious in my eyes. I mean he could be Stansfield but why as Barksdale would he not want to see the back of Escath? In either case, we haven't nailed a single Barksdale and that is worrying. Morgie, well, I've explained above.

I am going to Lynch Number11

 

Yeah I mean you actually didn't do anything wrong or blatantly "slip up" as a baddie but it's just a gut feeling I can't shake off. Wouldn't mind an alternative pressure lynch on BigDougy or Arheiner/Teja like you said. I hate having a low sample size of posts to get a scum read on.

I've noticed that inactives or people who post little in mafia have had the power shift to their side because it's "not good enough to lynch them just because they don't post much" and it's hard to actually get another alternative reason to actually lynch them because well... they are not that active. Low sample size of posts to get a read on. Leaves them in a pretty nice position. Seen Teja coast like this before.

 

Gazza said he got a clear on Uppercut if I'm not mistaken.