Discussion in 'Betting, Tipping and Fantasy' started by Rego, Jan 9, 2015.
I worded it poorly. $1030 ($1.74 odds) so $480 profit.
Super Rugby Round 12 Advice
Highlanders v Crusaders - Game of the week by far. Unfortunately the Highlanders have gone from $2.30 odds to $1.82 odds. Understandable given the market. Personally I think the Landers will win this one. The Saders tbf haven't had much of a tough schedule to date (they finish on one) so they haven't been tested like others quite as much and has propped their wins up. That aside I think the Lander's tactical game should outsmart the Saders who have been a lil one dimensional - works against easier opposition. Hit the head to head up, or alternative handicaps to be safer. Either team is a goer.
Rebels v Brumbies - Outside the recovering Tahs, these two teams are fighting for that probably only one Aus playoff spot. The Brumbies have come right again and should be too good for the Rebels. Brumbies are paying $1.54 so hit that up.
Hurricanes v Reds - Well a bit of drama has surrounded this one and tbh stay the fuck away from betting on it. The Canes have stood down the Savea's, Jane, Vito and Eves. That being said we should still easily get the job done, especially considering the Reds have their own injury woes (Karmichael Hunt etc.). Handicap is at -14.5 and I'd say the Canes may be the goer there but it was only at -17.5 before the news soooo those players being worth only 3 points is a bit BS even with the Reds injury woes. Maybe wait for the over/ under for this one - could be a few points in it.
Tahs v Bulls - Tahs have come right and the Bulls have looked very average in Aus, odds for the Tahs are at $1.33 which provides no value even the handicap at -7 is a bit meh, maybe hit lower handicaps up for this one. Tahs should get the job done here.
Sunwolves v Stormers- Nothing to see here
Cheetahs v Kings - Also nothing to see here
Lions v Blues - I'm gonna say the thrashing the Lions received against the Canes was an anomaly and the Lions at $1.45 will get the job done here. The Blues were incredibly average against the Kings so can't see them winning this one. Lions pack should destroy the Blues too. Could be a lot of points in this one too.
Jags v Sharks - This is another good betting game odds wise. Jags are at $1.95 and the Sharks at $1.87. You have to go Sharks here really. The Jags have been pretty poor to date and the Sharks have come off a good win against the Canes and a good NZ tour, they're really looking good. Don't bother with handicaps, bet the winner (Sharks) here.
I'll write my thoughts up tomorrow, betting wise there's not much value in tonight's game with Beale out etc. Maybe hit the over 40.5 points up paying $1.50 - probably the only goer.
Stormers (good betting one this)
Chiefs v Rebels - so I think the Chiefs will get the win here. Most NZ teams have dealt to the Rebels easily but the Chiefs are on a bit of a slump and coming off the bye. I hear it's pissing down, Rebels + 22 could be the goer at $1.5 odds.
Force v Blues - I know the Blues have been average at best but they should get the win here. Blues -3 is the spread or to win is at $1.57, both are good options.
Lions v Jags - bookies have provided shit all value for this one.
Sharks v Kings - nothing to see here
Bulls v Stormers. Basically even odds and given how poor the Bulls are as a unit I reckon you have to hit the Stormers to win this one up. Big value. Even given their last performance and being away from home.
French Open Betting:
Probably should have been posting a few of my tips but here's one for tonight:
A relatively safe 4 fold:
Berdych @ $1.08
Ferrer @ $1.04
Tsonga @ $1.12
Cuevas @ $1.12
4 fold paying: $1.43
add the likes of Djokovic and Nadal if you wanna get more in there for acca bonus sake.
Hit it up.
Who's winning tonight Reg? Big dog gotta eat.
Will post tonight when I get home
Ok so these are to multi up, multi up as little or many as you like:
Simon @ $1.40
Raonic @ $1.08
Nishikori @ $1.07
Kyrgios @ $1.03
Wawrinka @ $1.03
That pays $1.72
Others you can consider is Verdasco at $1.22 maybe instead of Simon. Add the likes of Murray for ACCA bonus purposes if that applies.
Once again, too easy with all those players listed winning.
Updated my spreadsheet - in the last 5 days (i.e since the French Open started) I've profited $998.92!!!! I can thank the NBA play offs to a much lesser extent too for that but fuck it's kind of laughing at me being so close to $1k. I'll get there today though I'd assume. I don't think I've ever had a $1k week before so pretty chuffed about it.
Theoretically I managed to work $65 (the amount in my betting account) up to that profit level so you certainly don't have to start out big to end big.
Well I've surpassed the $1k profit mark for the week
I'll just talk about tonight's matches today:
Canes v Highlanders - I'm not going to say who will win this one, it could honestly go either way. Given that fact the value is in the Landers at $2.10 BUT I'm not saying they'll win, really this game could go either way and a bet either way suffices. With the Landers being the underdogs though it does put value in the Landers +7 at $1.50. traditionally these games have been decided by less than 7 points in the past so history favours that bet too. I'm bias but if I was a neutral by stander I'd actually slightly favour the Landers but there's going to be a big home crowd at this one. Get the beers ready! The total is at 44 and there could be some value in hitting the over for that. I'm unsure of the conditions down in Welly ATM though.
Tahs v Chiefs - I understand that the Tahs will be a different team at home and are on the improve but with Beale gone, the value is on the Chiefs at $1.60 and the spread of -2.5 as well. Folau will he dangerous in the midfield and an upset here wouldn't surprise me as much as you'd think but the value still lies in the Chiefs, they were good last week too.
Not much value in the Jags v Kings one, maybe the -20.5 tbh
Will do the rest tomorrow.
Blues v Crusaders - Now the spread is at -9 for this one, Saders obvious favourites. The Blues have looked terrible as of late. Only just managed to get past a poor Force team and Kings unit. However the Blues have feared better against the NZ teams, holding their own. They beat the Landers by 2, lost to the Saders by 15, lost to the Canes by 4, lost to the Chiefs by 6 so apart from that Saders game they've been within 7 for all other games. Just something to note (the Saders were at home and the Bleus are a different outfit in Auckland). However if you're hitting the spread up it's still logical to go the -9. Saders should win this one and given their form and the Blues poor form they should cover at least 9 points. Only iffy area is the Blues unpredictability and as mentioned stepping up against the NZ teams. I'm quite liking the Saders to win the 1st half at $1.50 or Saders/ Saders double result at $1.62. If you're going to take alternative handicaps up I'd advise in going lower i.e Saders -6 at $1.50 rather than the Blues +16 at $1.50 (even though that does seem quite enticing) this match has the possibility of blowing out more than the Saders not covering 6 points. Total is at 47.5 and tbh I'd stay away from it. That's traditionally a plagued number either way.
Stormers v Cheetahs - Nothing much to see here tbh
Bulls v Lions - The biggest match of the round outside that Canes one last night. The Lions are actually underdogs for this one, playing away and Jantjies being out is the causation of that. The Bulls looked good last week which was a positive after looking average on their tour, the Lions have looked like the premier SA team from start to finish so far. A lot really depends on how much Jantjies is missed but I'm going to predict an upset here and say the Lions win this one at $2.10. The spread is at 2 and I'd obviously advise on the +2 for the Lions. Lions +7 is at $1.50 and the go to bet of the round imo. This one if not a Lions win should be close and I'd advise that bet if you don't want to go for a winner. Stay away from the total.
Rebels v Force - Meh Rebels should win this one but the Force didn't look too bad last week so their spread could be a goer. I'll advise what this is looking like tomorrow.
Just turned $80 into $642 in less than 12 hours!!! What a ripper of a betting day
So yeaaahhhh....had a fucking good month last month (July) profited $10.8k, had some huge wins, essentially the 2 big moments were turning $100 into $3.5k, withdrew most of that. Then the second biggy was turning $35 into $7.8K, withdrew $7.5k of that.
Shouting myself a trip to the Aus open is January.
sick, good stuff.
any plans to bet on mcgregor vs mayweather? i want to hear peoples thoughts on that
Not too sure eh, don't really know too much about fighting betting wise or even general wise.
What were the legs for the 7k?
Was like 111 bets to get there but the major ones were:
Khachanov to beat Bedene, $3045 @1.42 = $4324
Woziniacki to win, $4324 @1.80 =$7783
Obviously to get to that original $3045 was a lot of bets, then just 2 big bets with the balance that I was 100% confident about got me to that $7.8K.
Already profited 3.8K this month (last 5 days) with the $342 I Ieft in my account to play with.
Life is good.
Huge, HUGE value on Mayweather RN. Price pushed up by mugs
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