Rego's Betting Thread

Discussion in 'Betting, Tipping and Fantasy' started by Rego, Jan 9, 2015.

  1. Gazza GJ Weaver

    Won another $70 profit today from the NBA, up $120 for the month and $320 for the year.
     
  2. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Hopped on the Blues to beat the Jaguares @ $1.50 before it changed to $1.25 odds because the Jaguares are resting 10 players.....:D winning.

    Can sure bet it now too.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2016
  3. Gazza GJ Weaver

    Just got on Kravchuk to win at $1.53
     
  4. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Super Rugby Betting Advice Round 6

    Highlanders v Force -
    The way the Force/ Landers have been playing this result should be pretty clear - Landers win. The win is only paying $1.08 so no point in that unless you're looking to stack a multi. Landers handicap is at -21 (I got in when it was -18 but has risen ever since). Still some value in that -21. The Force have been blown out in the 2nd half of games and the Landers are a bloody good team. Based on each other's form, there's no reason why the Landers can't do the same. More value in the -21 than the +21 as a result. The over and under is at 53.5. The problem with that kind of number is it kind of does really mean the Force have to score a bit too, only the Chiefs game went over that number. If you're going to hit it, I'd go for the over (the Landers should score a few) so couldn't really risk the under. Over 48 is at $1.50 which would be a bit safer. Personally I reckon the safer over/ under is the Landers total points which is at 36.5, this means the Landers can score their fair share and you don't have to worry about the Force scoring a few to put it over 53.5. Landers over 31.5 is at $1.40 if you want something safer. Landers over 43.5 is at $2.75 if you want to go more risky. That's really the main value options for this game.

    My advice:
    Hit up the Landers total points over. Safer: o 31.5, Value: o 36.5, Riskier: over 43.5, Very risky: over 49.5 ($4.33 odds).


    Lions vs Crusaders -. Now there's some money to be had in this one. The Saders are paying $1.80 for the win and the Lions $2.05. The Lions are a good team, they've got better as the rounds have gone on and at home this should be a goodie. I'm going to say Saders here though, they played bloody well against the Sharks last week and have actually played well above what I expected them to apart from round 1. Ever since their loss against the Chiefs they've been good. If you want to take the draw into account for a little bit better odds the Saders spread is at -0.5 @ $1.87. I actually got the Saders to win at $1.90 but I'd say that got thrashed hard and it's at $1.80 now. Over/ under is at 52.5, wouldn't bother with that. The money to be had is picking the right winner. I'm saying Saders this one but if you went Lions it certainly wouldn't raise any eyebrows. Saders +4.5 is at $1.50 if you want to be a bit safer but in odds like this, pick a winner imo.

    My advice
    Hit up the H2H bet (or handicap for better odds) in this one. I'm saying Saders in this one.


    Blues v Jaguares - I was lucky enough to beat the bookies and hop on the Blues @ $1.50 when the Jags lineup got announced (resting 10 players) which I can now sure bet if I'd like. The Blues are at $1.25 so absolutely no value there at all. I do believe the Blues are the red herring team and could pull out an absolute masterclass at any game or could do the opposite. The Jags haven't been able to finish games and that will come with time I'd say. The Spread is at +10 for the Jags. If you're going to hit that up I'd definitely say the +10, they are resting 10 players and have made the flight over but I feel like the Blues are too variable to guarantee a win by more than 10 points, so the value lies in the +10. I'd look for safer options like +16 at $1.50 for this one though. Feel like this is going to be an interesting game from a neutral stand point. The over/ under hasn't been released so could be value in that. I'd expect a lot of points in this one.

    My advice
    Wait for the over/ under to be released, don't bet or Jags +10 or +16.5 for more safety. This game could produce anything tbh.


    Brumbies v Chiefs
    - Both teams have been playing well and this should be a cracker. The Brumbies have a much stronger lineup playing this one but they are coming back from SA so that could be a negative for them. I feel like this one is 60/40 in the Brumbies favour. Their odds for the win are only @ $1.50 so doesn't really make it too worthwhile with a 60/40 chance of winning. Handicap is at -5.5 which also seems quite risky, I'd sway towards the Chiefs at +5.5 for that one. Even though I reckon the Chiefs will lose this one, the only safe bet to me seems to be the Chiefs +11 at $1.50. The over and under could be worth it too when it gets released.

    My advice
    Brumbies to win but don't see enough value in the $1.50 odds to bet that, up to you. Chiefs +11 the only safer bet with value imo. This should be a good match and maybe one to only chuck a few dollars on if anything. Wait for the o/u too.


    Kings v Sunwolves - This should be a close match for all the wrong reasons (2 shit teams). I was lucky enough to jump on the Kings at $1.90 who are now paying $1.61 (I've done really well predicting the market this week). So personally I can sure bet this one. Now I didn't hit the Kings up because I thought they'd definitely win, it was purely predicting the market to move in their favour and then being able to sure bet. This one is hard to call, the Kings have literally been fucked up the ass and apart from the Canes game (who made them look good) where they showed they could defend they've been terrible. The Sunwolves on the other hand have actually got a lot closer to teams but they have been at home/ closer to home than the Kings having to travel to NZ etc. With that in mind I'd say the Sunwolves @ $2.30 is better "value" but do kind of reckon the Kings may win this one and had the odds stayed at even I'd suggest them. Now that they've dropped to $1.61 it's not worth it as much in a game I reckon is 50/50. That's where the handicap becomes enticing, the spread is at +4 for the Sunwolves and I'd definitely hit that over the -4. Wolves +9 is at $1.50 which is probably the best bet in a game that could go either way.

    My advice
    If you want to just hit a 50/50 bet up purely for value go Sunwolves for the win. Wolves +9 is the sensible bet if not.


    Bulls v Cheetahs
    - The Cheetahs aren't as bad of a team as people make out, reckon they're a bit underrated. Bulls win is @ $1.25 so no value there. I do reckon the Bulls will win but the Cheetahs spread is at +10 so definitely hit that if you're wanting to hit the spread up. Cheetahs +14.5 is at $1.50 for more safety.

    My advice
    Cheetahs + 10 or +14.5


    Waratahs v Rebels - The Rebels are a good team but can't see them winning this one. The Tahs were a bit average last week but should get the job done. They're paying $1.33 so probably not too much point in that. The spread is at 7.5 and tbh I'd be a little inclined to not hit that, could go either way. Rebels + 14 @ $1.50 or Tahs @ -3 @ $1.50 are good bets, I'd sway towards the Tahs -3. You could hit up both I guess.

    My advice
    Tahs -3 or Rebels +14


    And like always not every game is as good as another to bet on, have just given the best bets for every game but doesn't necessarily mean to bet on all. Take my advice and make your own decisions. I reckon the money/ value is in the Saders v Lions match, pick the right winner and you're in the money. Can also make some multis too.


    My tips:

    Highlanders
    Crusaders
    Blues
    Brumbies
    Kings
    Bulls
    Waratahs
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2016
  5. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Profited $190 from the Saders match. Hope people took my advice (the match to jump on) or if not the sceptics will be quiet. Good high scoring match.
     
  6. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Had $20 on Isaiah Thomas to score 26 or more and Boston to win, Thomas gets exactly 26 :cool:
     
  7. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Super Rugby Round 7 "Advice"

    Well I'll be away from tomorrow onwards for the weekend with out signal (yes no rugby for me this weekend) so thought I'd do round 7 of Super Rugby.

    Normally I'd do every game and analyse the best bets but tbh there's no point this round. This is not much of a betting week unless you put some multis on or pick a big upset.

    The first game is the Chiefs v Blues. Understandably the Chiefs are paying $1.25 and the Blues $4.00. I'd advise to staying away from that as there's not much value there. The handicap is at 10.5 and may just be worth while but also could be a bad bet. The Blues are just too unpredictable to bet anything imo. They could miraculously win this one or could just as easily get smashed. The over and under may just be your best bet (hasn't been released) there should be a few points in this one.

    The next game is the Force v Saders. The H2H and handicaps are exactly the same as the Chiefs one. The -10.5 for the Saders the only real option in this one BUT they are coming back from SA, the Force were improved last week and will be at home. Something to consider.

    Stormers v Kings - no point betting

    Hurricanes v Jaguares - The odds and handicaps are at the same as the first 2 and this match I'd strongly recommend not betting on (yet at least). The Canes haven't played a good full 80 of rugby yet despite being 3 from 5. They're coming off the bye and will be at home but if the Jaguares name a stronger lineup than what they did last week I'd expect the odds to increase, if not the odds will stay about the same (so no point being hasty). Without knowing what the odds could end up being, I can only comment on the current state. The Canes at $1.25 or -10.5 is waaaaay too risky, the Jaguares have shown they like running with the ball (as do the Canes) so really anything could happen in this one and like I say it's the Canes - nothing special so far. I'd advise sticking to the over and under on this one depending what that may be. Should be a lot of points scored.

    Reds v Highlanders
    - The Reds have been improving since sacking their coach but the Landers should win this one (even with Edmonds gone and Ben Smith 50/50). Landers are paying $1.30 so no value in that and the -9.5 could be a little risky if Smith isn't named. Maybe stay away from this one for now.

    Sharks v Lions - Pretty much the only semi-good game to bet on H2H this round. The Sharks are paying $1.50 and the Lions $2.65. Both teams have shown they mean business this year, I'd say the Sharks will win this one but may not just be enough value in $1.50 to bet that. Handicap is sitting at 5.5 and the +5.5 for the Lions could be an option but I'd be enticed to go up to maybe +9 or something if not picking a winner.

    Kings v Bulls - Nah nothing to see here betting wise.


    So as you can see until the over/unders get released there's not really too much to be enticed by on a game-by-game basis but it makes it a perfect round to multi.

    My tips

    Chiefs
    Saders
    Stormers
    Hurricanes
    Highlanders
    Sharks
    Bulls

    While I wouldn't necessarily advise multi-ing all my tips in an accumulator (at least until lineups are out) if you were it'd give you odds of $4.30 - I'd only put a few dollars on that one.

    Probably better to do some doubles/ triples for more safety.

    The safest multi is probably:

    Landers
    Bulls
    Stormers

    Paying: $1.53

    But pick any multis out to your choosing, the round of multis if anything this round. Also keep in mind over and unders.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2016
  8. Rego RS Hutchinson

    For those in doubt about my tipping record. I've successfully tipped 35/46 games correctly so far. That's 76% correct...
     
  9. Fiery GR Smith

    Most of these games are so easy to pick though. Especially the Chiefs v Brumbies one ;). I would only be impressed by something over 80% tbh [MENTION=2357]Rego[/MENTION].

    Lift ya game son.
     
  10. Rego RS Hutchinson

  11. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Apologies for not doing last week (was away) which was unfortunate as all my bets won.

    Super Rugby Round 9 Advice

    Highlanders v Sharks -
    Not much of a betting game here for the head to head, Highlanders should get the win here but at $1.22 it's not worth it. Handicap is at 11.5 and tbh I'm not too sure if I'd hit that either. If you're going to go for the -11.5. The over/ under is at 51.5 which is also pretty average from a betting perspective. A lot of things really depend on the Sharks with these bets. Highlanders - 6.5 is at $1.50 which is probably the best bet here. Also the Highlanders/ Highlanders double result at $1.67 is also worth a look. Highlanders to score the most tries is at $1.44 which is pretty good too given their play style and the Sharks, they should easily score more tries here.

    Rebels v Cheetahs - this is a really intriguing game. The Rebels are a "solid" allround type team but I do think the Cheetahs are heavily underrated. They're coming off that massive whooping they gave the Sunwolves. Rebels are paying $1.53, Cheetahs $2.50. You could go either way there but maybe some more value in the Cheetahs bet in a smaller $$$ bet. I'd advise the handicap here which is +5.5. Cheetahs + 10.5 is at $1.50 which is a safer sensible option. Just depends how well the Cheetahs travel. This game has the potential to be pretty high scoring so the over 50.5 could be a way to go but maybe leave that to one of your latter bets.

    That's tonight's games, I'll do the rest a little later.


    My tips

    Highlanders
    Cheetahs
    Jaguares
    Hurricanes
    Waratahs (good one to bet on, will discuss later)
    Stormers
    Lions
    Crusaders (another good one to bet on, will discuss later)
     
  12. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Sunwolves v Jags - Really nothing you can say but a Jags win here after the Sunwolves' last performance. -17.5 is the handicap which is the way to go. -11 is at $1.50 which is safer. Jags have the potential to run riot.

    Canes v Chiefs - this is gonna be a stunner but unfortunately with a couple of Chiefs injuries the odds have shortened for the Canes. Unless you think there's gonna be a Chiefs win, there's not the value in the H2H anymore. The Chiefs +9 at $1.5 has a bit of value but this game has the potential to have one team run away with it - not that either team is bad, just the nature of both playstyles. The Chiefs have a poor record here in Welly so that's another thing to consider. I'd hit the over 47 personally. Canes to win this IMO.

    Force v Tahs - both teams have been somewhat poor but Tahs to win here at $1.53 is the goer.
    Brumbies v Saders - betting wise this game is the best. Literally pick a winner and both have good odds. Honestly the way the Brumbies have been playing lately I'm going to say Saders to win which is paying $2.30 - massive value there. Saders +8 is $1.50 which is the safer option. The Saders are seriously going under the radar.

    The rest of the games have no value whatsoever as it should be clear wins, no value in the handicaps.
     
  13. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Easy Money:

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Super Rugby Round 10 Advice

    Not the best betting weekend but there is at least one game worth hitting.

    Chiefs v Sharks - Now this game doesn't pose too much of a betting game. The Sharks will no doubt have a better scrum BUT they are resting their front row so it won't be as strong as previous weeks. The Sharks have struggled to score tries which is crucial against a team like the Chiefs. The Chiefs do have a pretty weak defence so they may be able to cross over but unless their defence can keep a dangerous Chiefs out, they won't win this one. Chiefs should win. No value in the H2H and no value in the 14.5 spread. Maybe hit the Chiefs -14.5 if you want to hit the spread, the Chiefs have more potential to run away with this one than the Sharks keeping it close (not saying that the Chiefs will necessarily run away with it though). Maybe some value in the Sharks +20 at $1.50 I guess. The total is at 51.5 which once again either relies on the Chiefs to really run away with it or the Sharks to score their contribution too. The Sharks may get some penalties of course. Not the best of games to bet on imo.


    Force v Bulls - The Bulls should win this and there may be just the slightest value in them to win at $1.40 Spread is at -6.5 which is maybe a lil meh. Bulls -2 is at $1.52 which could be an option.

    Blues v Rebels - Well there was value in this game when the Blues were paying $1.56, they're now only paying $1.36 - not much point. The spread is at 7.5 which could be worth hitting and whilst the Rebels don't have a bad team, I'd expect the Blues to score a few in this one. The problem is the Blues are a lil unpredictable. Maybe wait for the overs/ unders for this one. -4.5 is at $1.60 and that may just be your best bet for now.

    Highlanders v Brumbies - Once again another game that did have value but not so much anymore. The Landers should win this given how poorly the Brumbies have been performing of late but unfortunately the Landers are only paying $1.40 which doesn't have much value. The spread is at -6.5 which is probably the most value. The Brumbies have been absolutely smashed by the Saders and Chiefs in recent rounds and whilst they may get their shit together they may not either. Losing by 7 points is no smashing and would be an improved performance for the Brumbies, worth assuming the risk they won't get closer than that given previous form. -2 is at $1.50 which is a safer but very good bet.

    Reds v Cheetahs - Now personally I reckon the Cheetahs are a lil underrated but the Reds are on the improve and should get the win here. They're paying $1.50 - there's maybe some value in that but I haven't looked at lineups yet so may be on the line.

    Lions v Hurricanes - Now this is the game of the round for both betting and entertainment sake, this honestly could go either way. The Lions have been playing some good code as of late but the Canes are starting to really gel together. The Canes do have travel against them which sees them as slight underdogs. Basically pick a winner and it's a good bet. Probably just a lil more value in the Canes at $2.05 whom imo should win. This should be a high scorer so wait for the overs and unders too. Canes +7.5 is at $1.50 and that's a pretty good bet for a safer option imo.

    Stormers v Tahs - Stormers should win this at home and are now only paying $1.40 which doesn't provide too much value. Handicaps could be an option but I feel could be a lil more risky for this one, this could just as easily be a close game or a blow out.

    Jags v Kings - No value at all in this one except maybe the Kings +31.5 at $1.50. I can see why the Jags are mass favourites (they have the squad there to be) but so far have been pretty poor. The Kings +31.5 could be the way to go as a result.

    This round really only has a couple of good games to bet on so far but that of course makes it good for multis and so forth.

    My tips:
    Chiefs
    Bulls
    Blues
    Landers
    Reds
    Canes
    Stormers
    Jags
     
  15. Rego RS Hutchinson

    $400+ Profit in a Week from $65 - Step by Step Guide

    So I always like to give myself challenges when it comes to betting - always more fun starting small and working up. I thought I'd share my week in review to emphasize you don't need to have a massive bankroll or bet big to win nice money.

    So I started with $65 7 days ago - theoretically this was just profits that I had left in my account from the previous week but for example sake we'll say that was my initial deposit.

    Now what you want to do is forget about your actual ongoing bankroll, even start a new spreadsheet if it helps and then transfer it over later or keep it on the week period for the performance analysis. You want to treat this $65 like it's the only money you have.

    Before I start, this guide is all about making sure entertainment and staying in control is the most important aspect among making $$$.

    Rules to understand:

    1. When you make your initial deposit back in profit, you must withdraw that amount. I.e in my instance I had a $65 deposit, when my bank balance reaches $130 ($65) I must withdraw $65 making my bank balance back to $65 - essentially just playing with profits from then on.

    2. For every extra $100 of profit after that $65 made you must withdraw $50 of that. So for example at $165 bank balance you'd withdraw $50 making a new bank balance of $115 and then at $215 you'd withdraw another $50 and so on.

    3. Do not deposit or reverse any withdrawals during the week. If you balance hits $0, that's you done for the week.

    4. You can amend this to suit your needs but imo this amount keeps enough in your account to progress but also gives you enough to be satisfied should you lose from then on.

    Note: Ideally you'll want day 3/ 4 to be your weekend (so a Friday/ Sat or a Sat/ Sun, so start the week according to that - you'll see why by reading the guide)

    Day 1

    Now your week has started and you'll want to know what to bet. You'll hear me talking about only betting 1-2% of your bankroll on a bet - ignore this for such a small amount. You'll have to bet a higher portion of your $65 bankroll (or chosen amount) to make it anywhere - but not too much as you want to still be able to sustain losses if need be. What's the magic number on day 1? about 10%. This means you can sustain 10 losses if need be. What you bet on is up to you but aim for the $1.80 odds or better. You can go down for $1.50 bets if the value is there but any lower and you're risking your bankroll too much for too little, early on. The objective of day 1 is just to form some profit. It probably won't be much.

    Rego's Day 1 performance: 7/11 (63.6%) $9.45 profit.

    Day 2

    Much the same as day 1 but bet bigger now (15-20%) that you have a slightly bigger bankroll BUT only bets you see some really good value, aim for anything over $1.50 odds. Be selective and ones that still have value but not as much bet 10% or less like day 1. Day 2/3 will pretty much determine your week. Don't be frightened if some of the bigger bets don't get home, your bankroll can sustain a few before it's an issue. On my day 2 I literally was at -$15 for the day early on (so -$5 overall) but that's fine so long as you hit your later bets.

    Rego's Day 2 performance: 5/8 (62.5%) $95.76 profit. You'll notice I'm not laying down a tonne of bets - have control, less is better for something like this.

    So during day 2 I made a withdrawal of $65 meaning from then on I couldn't lose any money for the week.

    Day 3

    Day 3 is really determined by your success of day 2. If you turned a decent profit on day 2, be more conservative. This means being more conservative than even day 1. I'd recommend 5%-8% of your current bankroll is the magic number here, you can go higher of course on a few bets if the value is there but I'd advise against it too much. By being a bit more conservative it means you can place a few more bets if you'd like - especially if you lose a few more bets on this day. If you didn't obtain decent profits on day 2, treat the day exactly like day 2 and be a day behind for the rest of the days.

    Rego's Day 3 performance: 7/16 (43.8%) $27.83 profit.

    Day 4

    Now assuming you took the conservative approach for day 3, your profits for the day are probably quite a bit less than you saw on Day 2. This is to be expected - either because you sustained more losses than usual (like me) or you still had a decent run but logically betted less ----> less profit. Day 4 works exactly the same as day 3, conservative etc. Essentially during this period is when you want to be sustaining more losses than usual/ betting more. This a good time to have a weekend or a round of sport you want to bet on a few games - end of the day this is all entertainment and that's what this is factoring for.

    Rego's Day 4 performance: 9/11 (81.8%) $58.25 profit.

    Day 5

    Day 5 really is determined by if you've followed the expected plan of having day 3 and 4 as the weekend. So assuming it's a Sunday or Monday, there's probably not much on and you probably won't bet too much at all. If it's not a Monday but you've still got some decent profits by this stage I'd also recommend taking a bit of a break and not betting too much unless there's some big event on. Betting can be addictive for some and it's always good to take a step back a bit so you don't lose control and do some crazy betting and lose all your good work.

    Rego's Day 5 performance: 2/3 (66.67%) $7.60 profit.

    Day 6/7

    So you've cleared your head and you want to get back into it. Day 6/7 can be a bit more open to choice and determined by performance. If you've maintained some decent profits up to this stage, well this can be if you wish the time to turn decent profits into fucking decent profits. To do this, follow day 2's approach or if you want to be a little safer go for a day 1 approach. If of course you're happy with your profits to date you can be more conservative and take a more day 3/4 approach or if you want to be completely safe take a day 5 approach. You may choose to do one option for both days or may choose to do one on day 6 and then another on day 7.

    Rego's Day 6 performance: 5/7 (71.4%) $72.51 profit.

    $100 withdrawn during Day 6 as per rules.

    Rego's Day 7 performance: 9/13 (69.2%) $140.87 profit.

    $50 withdrawn during Day 7 as per rules.

    As you can probably tell on day 6 I took a more day 1 approach and on Day 7 a more day 2 approach.

    Rego's week performance: 44/69 (63.8%) $412.27 profit.


    Average odds etc. for the week:

    [TABLE="width: 438"]
    <tbody>[TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="colspan: 2"]All Bets[/TD]
    [TD="colspan: 2"]Won Bets[/TD]
    [TD="colspan: 2"]Lost Bets[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Average Odds (dec)[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="colspan: 2"] 2.25[/TD]
    [TD="colspan: 2"] 1.77[/TD]
    [TD="colspan: 2"] 3.09[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Average Bet Size[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD="colspan: 2"] $ 24.00[/TD]
    [TD="colspan: 2"] $ 28.91[/TD]
    [TD="colspan: 2"] $ 15.34[/TD]
    [/TR]
    </tbody>[/TABLE]

    Now of course you definitely won't have extremely good weeks like I did every week but they will happen. Some weeks you may lose a little bit or not make much at all or make $100ish (normal) but I can assure you using an approach like this which not only has entertainment at the forefront of the idea but tries to keep you in control, you'll see steady profits over time. A profit like that for example could see you lose your $65 every week for the next 6 weeks and you'll still have profited. You'll make more profit than you lose and tbh won't often lose the full bankroll often.

    The rules are there purely so that firstly you don't lose any money on your deposit and secondly take some of your profits in. This guide shows you don't have to bet big to win big or have a lot of money to begin with. Sure betting $1000 at $2 could be a quick $1000 but if that loses you're stuffed....
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2016
  16. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Super Rugby Round 11 Advice

    It's that rime again - last week I brought you a massive winning week (I won big too) and this week is gonna be a goodie, some nice match ups. I'm not sure how many people read over this but fwiw it's always good from my perspective when I get a lil drunk to bet on the right things (i.e what sober Rego thinks).

    Crusaders v Reds -
    The Reds have had a bit of a tradition of stumping the Saders in the past. They have improved but the Saders have been doing well albeit under the radar. Can't see the Reds winning this and the Saders at $1.08 has absolutely no value. The spread is at 18.5 and tbh I also don't see too much value in that just because of the tradition of the Saders slipping to the Reds a bit. They are at home so if you're going to hit it, definitely Saders -18.5. Saders -13 is at $1.50 which is probably the wiser option. Even the totals is at 54.5 which is a bit meh value wise too. Might be an inplay this one.

    Brumbies v Bulls - Now this is going to be a good match. It's hard to say who will win, the Brumbies have been poor (less poor last week) and it's really a matter of will they come right this week? next week? They're at home so that should help BUT the Bulls have been pretty strong, they dealt to the Force and have only lost 1 match all season. The odds are $1.40 to the Brumbies, $2.80 Bulls and being 50/50 on this one there's absolutely no value in the Brumbies and massive value in the Bulls. Hit the Bulls at $2.80 for value sake. For some safety the spread is at 7 so go +7 and +13 is at $1.50. Maybe the Brumbies will come right in this one and wallop the Bulls but the value is there to be had. Brumbies had a heap of ball last week and couldn't get over the line for ages.

    Sunwolves v Force - This will actually be a close game for all the wrong reasons (shit teams). Sunwolves are at $2.55 and the Force are at $1.52. Personally the Force have better depth and you'd expect them to get home, Sunwolves have pulled some good games out (Jags etc.) but have also been very bad. Maybe just enough value to hit the Force. Spread's at 3.5 and the Force -3.5 is the goer there. Force +1.5 is at $1.50 so could go that way and secure winnings if the Wolves are to get a close win over the Force. Totals in this one could be a goer depending what it ends up being, could be a few points in this one.

    Chiefs v Highlanders - One of the games of the round between two teams I'm always happy to "support" below the Canes. The odds are at $1.44 to the Chiefs and $2.75 to the Landers. As you'd probably know from that, there's no value in the Chiefs and massive value in the Landers. Value aside I do believe the Landers will win this one, both sides are nearly back to full strength (although that Japan prop for the Chiefs is fooling nobody with his shitness) but I believe the Landers backline, good forward combinations and defence will see the Landers home. The Chiefs have been getting worse and worse as of late and are probably going on a month since their last full performance. A lot of this game will actually swing on Ngatai who I've rated for many years - glad to see he's finally getting the attention he deserves. Defensively he's a good player but he could have his work cut out for him a bit in this one. If you wanna be safe, the spread is 7 at the Landers +7 is logically the way to go - that's a massive handicap for a team like the Landers. +12 is at $1.50 if you want to be extra safe.

    Tahs v Cheetahs - Noting really to see here. Totals may be an option when it's released, should be a few points in this one.

    Sharks v Canes - There was massive value in this game but the odds have changed. Fortunately I got on the Canes at $1.80, they're now at $1.57 which maybe still has a little bit of value there but not much. The Sharks haven't been too bad of late but they'll be tired coming back from NZ and the Canes will be buzzing after their emphatic Lions' victory. Sharks are also resting a few blokes (hence the odds dropping) so that doesn't help their cause. Lambie back on the bench though. Spread is at 3.5 (was 1.5) and the Canes are probably still good value at -3.5 at the one. Canes should win by more than that now.

    Kings v Blues - Nothing much to see here but the -25 for the Blues may be of worth. Totals could be too. Kings are truly fucking woeful.
    [MENTION=2932]Hurricane[/MENTION]

    My tips:

    Crusaders
    argghhhhhhhhh I'm gonna say Brumbies to come right but hope the Bulls do it - too hard to call
    Force
    Highlanders
    Tahs
    Canes
    Blues
     
  17. Rego RS Hutchinson

    When you accidentally place a $650 bet instead of a $65 bet set to return $480 profit, cash it out with $50 profit straight away as fuck risking that much and it goes onto win - fml.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2016
  18. Gazza GJ Weaver

    Jesus, what would have been the payout?
     
  19. Rego RS Hutchinson

    I worded it poorly. $1030 ($1.74 odds) so $480 profit.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2016
  20. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Super Rugby Round 12 Advice

    Highlanders v Crusaders -
    Game of the week by far. Unfortunately the Highlanders have gone from $2.30 odds to $1.82 odds. Understandable given the market. Personally I think the Landers will win this one. The Saders tbf haven't had much of a tough schedule to date (they finish on one) so they haven't been tested like others quite as much and has propped their wins up. That aside I think the Lander's tactical game should outsmart the Saders who have been a lil one dimensional - works against easier opposition. Hit the head to head up, or alternative handicaps to be safer. Either team is a goer.

    Rebels v Brumbies - Outside the recovering Tahs, these two teams are fighting for that probably only one Aus playoff spot. The Brumbies have come right again and should be too good for the Rebels. Brumbies are paying $1.54 so hit that up.

    Hurricanes v Reds - Well a bit of drama has surrounded this one and tbh stay the fuck away from betting on it. The Canes have stood down the Savea's, Jane, Vito and Eves. That being said we should still easily get the job done, especially considering the Reds have their own injury woes (Karmichael Hunt etc.). Handicap is at -14.5 and I'd say the Canes may be the goer there but it was only at -17.5 before the news soooo those players being worth only 3 points is a bit BS even with the Reds injury woes. Maybe wait for the over/ under for this one - could be a few points in it.

    Tahs v Bulls - Tahs have come right and the Bulls have looked very average in Aus, odds for the Tahs are at $1.33 which provides no value even the handicap at -7 is a bit meh, maybe hit lower handicaps up for this one. Tahs should get the job done here.

    Sunwolves v Stormers- Nothing to see here

    Cheetahs v Kings - Also nothing to see here

    Lions v Blues - I'm gonna say the thrashing the Lions received against the Canes was an anomaly and the Lions at $1.45 will get the job done here. The Blues were incredibly average against the Kings so can't see them winning this one. Lions pack should destroy the Blues too. Could be a lot of points in this one too.

    Jags v Sharks - This is another good betting game odds wise. Jags are at $1.95 and the Sharks at $1.87. You have to go Sharks here really. The Jags have been pretty poor to date and the Sharks have come off a good win against the Canes and a good NZ tour, they're really looking good. Don't bother with handicaps, bet the winner (Sharks) here.

    My Tips
    Highlanders
    Brumbies
    Hurricanes
    Tahs
    Stormers
    Cheetahs
    Lions
    Sharks

    Hurricane
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2016

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