I'd assume the probability would be fairly decent actually as one would imagine getting three people to agree to an order is quite difficult given that people aren't hovering on Cricsim as they did before.
I'd like to hear what Shri's special ability is. If he's innocent we have nothing to worry about as we have pinned down two mafia, so outing himself is not an issue.
You're no where near clear. You're on a Dreamer report twice, statistically we really should lynch you first and go from there.
What do you want me to defend that I haven't already? You're doing all of this ignoring the obvious that Shri is listed in both dreams based purely upon your assumption that you nursed a mafia AVA. I don't see why you'd go for me before you'd go for AVA anyway if you think we're both maf since by your logic you think you actually blocked AVA. If AVA is mafia, there is still the (albeit miniscule) possibility in your mind that Heef bussed Lukic and is maf himself surely? If you truly believe that it is AVA and me, the path of least risk is AVA. I mean, didn't Heef inno AVA? So a three-maf team of Lukic, Heef, and AVA isn't out of the question. Not that I think that's the case. It's almost certainly just that Shri is maf but even if you don't believe that, I'd think logically that AVA would be a safer lynch than me. We don't know if there are two or three maf left either so making a wrong choice here could theoretically screw us over. So we really have to make the play that gives us the best chance of success. Depending on whether you believe that Shri is maf or not, the optimal option would be Shri/AVA. Maybe I've missed soemthing idk
anyone who's seen me play mafia games know that i am too stupid to scheme so what you see is what you get i don't care what you all do at this point because i'll be useful to the team effort either way
You'd be way more useful if you claimed. Way I see it you're either mafia and have nothing or aren't mafia and we don't need your ability to win, even if we lynch you.
Don’t have the time to go through everything right now but my reports specifically mention mafia. I’ll go with Captain and change my vote to Prez here to see what happens. He has been quite defensive and generally scummy today. Although Shri hasn’t given us much reason not to lynch him saying he’ll be useful either way... Unlynch Shri Lynch MrPrez
So, Baxter visited Downes. At first, I thought this should have prevented the dreaming, but now I think about it, watcher doesn't count as a visit. Hmmm. So, we have (as provided by Captain) Heef Claims Cop N0: AVA Town, N1: Cabinet No Report, N2: Lukic mafia, N3: Shri town N11 Claims Dreamer One of AVA, Shri and Baxter is Mafia. One of MrPrez, Shri and Heef is Mafia Captain and Arheiner innocent Captain Claims Nurse N0: no one, N1: no one, N2: protect/rb AVA, N3: protect/rb Howe Baxter Claims Watcher N0 nobody visited Howe N1 nobody visited AVA Nobody visited Downes N2 Nobody visited Heef N3 ftr ~~~~ Now, there's many scenarios here: 1. I bussed Lukic and am conducting nefarious schemes (would then imply AVA is also mafia based on Downes' dreams) 2. Downes is attempting a complicated bussing scheme 3. AVA and Prez are mafia 4. Baxter and Prez are mafia 5. Shri and ? are mafia Are there any other likely scenarios at this stage? We also need to remember that there's likely to be a third party in play. Town have often neglected the potential of third parties to win games like these and sometimes ignored that possibility completely. We shouldn't let that happen either. Then, the order that people jumped onto Lukic's lynching: 1. Me, 2. Howe, 3. Shri, 4. Downes, 5. AVA, 6. Captain Tellingly, no lynching from Prez though he didn't post in this thread in that period (10.30pm NZT 04/01/20 to 10.23pm NZT 05/01/20) - so a period of 24 hours. Neither did he post on the forum between early Friday and early Monday NZT, so could have just been absent. Similarly, Baxter didn't post in this period in the thread and also didn't post on the forum at all from early Saturday until not long after Lukic was lynched (30 minutes after). Potentially puts the Prez/Baxter combo as more likely, given the innos I have on AVA and Shri, though I'd still think a godfather is possible. Baxter could, of course, be a Mafia-aligned lookout. I'm leaning towards lynching Prez. How long to we have left in the day?