GAME I New South Wales Blues Vs Queensland Spirit

Do I go into Dragons game threads and speak shit about the NRL club comp being meaningless or unimportant? If you don't have anything to say other than to piss in the pocket of yet another Dragons player, or to say how pointless Origin is, then just fuck off out of these Origin threads.

 

The 3-0 win last year may work against QLD. There's no doubting the psychological effect of a whitewash IMO. You'd have to think it would be a motivating factor for the losers.

86, NSW won 3-0. QLD won the next year.
89, QLD won 3-0. NSW won the next year.
95, QLD won 3-0. NSW won the next year.
00, NSW won 3-0. QLD won the next year.

88, QLD won 3-0. QLD won the next year.
96, NSW won 3-0. NSW won the next year.

Frankly, I think Stuart is an idiot for using that article by Badel as a tool of motivation. If they get well beaten in Game 1, what are the players going to think? They may start believing it too if they've been carrying it around and had it posted on their lockers, only for them to go out and get thumped.

Seriously, if NSW don't have enough motivation just from the previous year's whitewash and the last 5 series losses, then there's something wrong.

 

I could be even more of a reductionist than I was when I stated that if NSW do not lead at half time in Game 1, they won't win the series, by saying: If NSW do not score the first try in Game 1, they won't win the series. Statistically speaking, that is what they're facing. Their win rate when conceding the first try drops to 10%, over the last 5 years. Their win rate when trailing at half time is 0%, over the last 5 years. And their win rate when trailing 1-0 in the series is 0%, over the last 5 years.

[FONT=&quot]Statistics and History Relating to 2011 SOO, Game 1.[/FONT]

In QLD's Favour

Over the last 15 Origins (5 series):

[FONT=&quot]*[/FONT][FONT=&quot]The first try scorer has gone on to win the match 13 times – 86.66%. QLD 9 from 10 – 90%. (Compared to NSW's 3 from 5 – 71.42%.)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]*[/FONT][FONT=&quot]QLD have lead at half time 8 times and went on to win every time – 100%. (Compared to NSW’s 66.67%.)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]*[/FONT][FONT=&quot]QLD have come from behind at half time to win 2 out of the 6 times NSW have lead – 33.33%. (Compared to NSW's 0%.)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]*[/FONT][FONT=&quot]QLD have won 2 of the 2 times the scores have been locked at half time – 100%.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]NSW have not won an opener in Brisbane since 2003.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]In NSW’s Favour[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]*[/FONT][FONT=&quot]The team coming off a successful whitewash has only backed up the next year 2 times out of 6 - 33.33%.[/FONT]


[FONT=&quot]Statistics and History For 2011 SOO Series.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]*[/FONT][FONT=&quot]21 of the 29 series winners have won Game 1 – 72.41%.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]*[/FONT][FONT=&quot]NSW have only come back to win a series after losing Game 1, twice in 29 years.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]*[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Once a hooker/half pairing have played 4 series together they've never gone on to lose another series (Smith/Lockyer, 04-07 and then won 09 and 10), (Smith/Thurston, 05-08 and then won 09 and 10), (Conescu/Lewis, 83-86 and then won 87 and 88. And Elias/Stuart, 90-93 and then won 94.) QLD currently have 2 of the 4 most stable and successful hooker/half combinations in history.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Other Notes On Current QLD Players.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]

Smith and Thurston have the highest win rate of any hooker/half combination to have played 10 or more games together, in SOO history.

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Smith/Thurston - 70.58%. 12 wins from 17 matches[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Smith/Lockyer - 68.75%. 11 wins from 16 matches.[/FONT][FONT=&quot].
Conescu/Lewis - 55.55%. 10 wins from 18 matches.
Elias/Stuart - 53.84%. 7 wins from 13 matches.
Conescu/Murray - 45.45%. 5 wins from 11 matches.
S.Walters/Langer - 35.71%. 5 wins from 14 matches.[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]

 

lol at the plethora of articles about Johns being back in camp, and the laptop that's going to lead to QLD's downfall.

Bloke just said he spent a whole hour there this week. FMD.

 

Do they?

I'd say NSW's three best players over the course of the series last year were Gidley, TLL and Hayne. They've lost all three of them.

Seriously, if you take Greg Bird out of this side, I'd say it's very bloody ordinary.

NSW's greatest weapon is their underdog status IMO. People don't expect them to win, and they've just lost 5 series in a row. Low expectation + high motivation = very dangerous football team.

Again though, personnel wise I think they're a long way behind QLD, even with the losses of Hodges, Inglis, Folau and Shillington.