What would you trade for Tom Boyd?

Okay, let's be fair.

Kennedy was a 2nd year Key forward.

Look at all the elite key forwards around and how long they took to develop. The fact that he got games for carlton as a junior in his first two years was a testament to his talent. His pick 4 value far from deteriorated in those two years. Still was worth pick 4 at the time.

Masten is irrelevant to the trade as it was pick three they traded. They didn't trade the rights to Masten, they traded West Coast a choice. Worth pick 3 at the time. Granted, a weak draft. The only better players than Masten were McEvoy, Dangerfield, Rioli, Grimes and then blokes from the second round in hindsight, but that's irrelevant.

As is Notte. The fact that he was a bust is irrelevant. He could have been as easily have been Mayne, SDT, Otten, Whitecross or Scott Selwood who was picked two picks later. It was still pick 20.

The only bloke you've listed thta can be valued in the trade is Kennedy as he was actually traded. Masten and Notte weren't. Pick 3 still has value, of course you're going to get an undeveloped player, but the chances are pretty fucking high they'll be good.

It was essentially Pick 3, 4 & 20 for Judd & 46.

Gumbleton right now is about as good as Kennedy was when he was traded. He's a draft bust. He's close to fully developed and really, a nice player - but he's hardly great. He does very little off the ball, he's got a handy contested grab but goal seeks too much and doesn't venture up the ground to use his skill set. He's developed, but not well. He's just not very good. He doesn't have upside, Kennedy had that. Kennedy had every chance of justifying his pick, which he did. Gumbleton has very little.

I'd be very surprised if a club would be willing to pay a top 12 pick for Gumbleton. Very, very surprised. I'd value him at pick 15.

Bellchambers wasn't pick 18. He was pick 8 in the '07 PSD. Passed over in the ND.

That said, I think pick 18 is undervaluing him now. He's an excellent tap ruckman with a good mark. I'd say he's worth pick 10-15.

Pears - while being someone I rate through the roof hasn't justified pick 23. I'd say he'd get pick 30 on the open market, even though I think at another club he'd do well.

I'll be generous and say Pick 10, 15 and 30 for Pick 1.

Honestly, in most drafts pick 1 is worth two mid firsts (7 & 10) or three late firsts (14, 16, 18). I'd say it's a little unders but not far off the value. I definitely think



West Coast got pick 3, 4, 20
GWS would get the equivalent of pick 10, 15, 30 let's say.

I don't think there's much wrong with your viewpoint of the Essendon players, I just think what you're saying falls apart as you undervalue not only the raw value of picks but how much AFL teams value them - which is much more than you right now.

 

Yeah see you're overrating picks. You'd be surprised at what clubs would pay for Gumbleton who's a 30-35 goal a season KPF with years to play and I definitely think you're underrating Belly who's one of the better genuine rucks in the cop. Top 8-10 IMO and that's being harsh.

Although I will confess to slightly overvaluing them to give the illusion of 'giving ground' to paul. I think even if I overvalue them the point still applies so why not. Then I can't be attacked for undervaluing them and 'if i valued them correctly my argument would be wrong'

 

You'd be surprised how much the 1 year out of the comp was a turnoff. Stupid, I agree.

 

Gumby wouldn't get 15 because the teams in that range wouldn't need a kf. If they had a pick in that range he would. Early second IMO. Look at Dawes and Clark trades for market value. Both were 1 goal a game KFs of around the same age.

Both aren't playing due to ridiculous depth issues. Belly would and should play, and he would play at most other clubs. They know what he's like, the essendon selection panel won't change their valuation of him. I do think you're underrating him. I really do. Very nice player.