The Wire Mafia III

The way I see it, we have to have a lynch today. There's three killers on the loose, town is boned if we don't get rid of the remaining Stansfield and we have to hope that Captain is true to his word and if we leave him alone, he won't night kill anyone.

Based on the evidence, I suspect Hedger is a Barksdale - his ability is certainly one that I've seen Mafia have before, but I think we can be pretty assured of the accuracy of his power - Dougy and I provide two pieces of evidence to support that. As such, and based on AVA's likely ability, it seems he is most likely to be the remaining Lisa Stansfield. If he is, then lynching him gives Town the only chance of winning.

Lynch AVA

I will reiterate that we can't afford to No Lynch here - we have to hit one of the lone killers tonight.

And no, this isn't me admitting or soft claiming to be Barksdale. I am town, but if you think of the probabilities, hitting Barksdale is much less likely to save town here than hitting Stanfield. If we hit Barksdale, we're relying on the Stanfield killing the Barksdale or vice-versa.

 

Because Captain is much more likely to townside as he's neutral. Yes, we'd have to take his claim on trust, but there is a reasonable chance that he doesn't kill tonight. The Barksdales and the Stanfields will both be looking to kill - we can't get rid of both likely Barksdales, so getting rid of the Stanfield is the most likely route to success.

If we successfully lynch the Stanfield, then that leaves 6.

Barksdales kill 1 - that leaves 5 and Town are still in the game.

If Captain kills - then yes, Town are likely to be boned unless he hits one of the Barksdales - but as I say, there's more chance of Captain keeping to his word as a neutral than there is of a Stanfield not killing.

If the Stanfield is still alive, then the only chance is the Stanfield hitting a Barksdale or the Barksdales hitting the Stanfield. Keeping Captain alive gives us a slightly higher probably of surviving to tomorrow.

Ah - now I realise what you're saying. Using my vote override, I could seal a mislynch tomorrow if I was Barksdale. Tbph, if I was Barksdale, I could already have sealed a pact with Captain and got a quorate lynch vote today. My vote + Captain's + Changing Hedger's + Changing Blunder's means game over for Town if I was Barksdale. That hasn't happened, has it.

 

Well, we can't afford a no lynch here at all. Cabinet, Dougy, Blunder and Captain, get your votes in.

I will reiterate that I haven't changed anyone's votes yet, so you can cleanly decide what to do. As I suspected, it seems likely that Hedger is Barksdale and AVA has admitted to being Lisa Stansfield.

Despite AVA's claim that he'd kill Hedger tonight - which I can well believe as he needs to get rid of the Barksdale - I don't think there's any guarantee of success if we allowed this to happen. Personally, I'm still leaning towards trusting Captain and bumping off AVA so the Barksdales only have one night kill.