Yes I realise your first sentence. Isn't that what I just admitted? Lions will have home quarterfinal and probably home semi if they beat what likes like will be the Sharks. There will be 4 non-NZ teams involved and I wouldn't be writing any of them off just yet and laying down a hundy just to win a pittance of $20. That's just me...but go for your life Hurricane
Don't tell anyone this story but when I first started betting my strategy was to make $20 bets on sure things that paid $1.10 and slowly accumulate a big balance!!! Gave that up after a while.
Yeah it doesn't really work, for every loss you have to win 11 bets, just to make a profit ($2) just not worth the outlay.
I'm not making any predictions just yet, the Lions have the Jags next week so they certainly don't necessarily have 1st place locked up. The thing is, I'd rather they do finish first so they play 8th at home in the quarters (which is unlikely to be an NZ team, rather than 7th which will be).
Next week's games blues vs tahs saders vs canes landers vs chiefs My secret to winning at the tab has been only tipping games I have an 80% feeling on. If it is a 60/40 thing then I have been avoiding the game, I have no idea who will win any of those games. So I may not place any bets on the nz teams. For my pool though I need to tip them so will go: Blues saders chiefs Although [MENTION=2357]Rego[/MENTION] and [MENTION=168]Fiery[/MENTION] who will be the chiefs loose forward trio next week.
OK I have been staring at the TAB screen for an hour. Chiefs $4 Landers $5.50 Canes $7 Saders $4 Saders won't win, Richie Mo'unga is too green. Matt Todd is probably the worst 7 in the NZ teams. Taufua is average. They will go better with Crotty back - but he won't be enough. I am eliminating them. That means one more NZ team to cross off the list...Chiefs vs Canes vs Landers Canes have new centres - Marshall is also a bit budget. Chiefs have a weak front row Landers got beat by the canes at full strength, Yeah...will comment more tomorrow Tempted to go Chiefs and Landers - $20 on each.
I'll comment a bit more tomorrow but first determine who you think will win this weekend's games. Whoever tops the conference will have odds drop significantly so best to bet now or odds will increase for those that miss out. What I will say is it's hard to get a gauge on a lot of the teams after the break, especially because these thrashings don't show much. Regarding the Canes midfield - Proctor has been really good, I reckon they need to stick with Laumape at 12 with Halaholo as an impact player but both played well last week.
[MENTION=2357]Rego[/MENTION] and [MENTION=168]Fiery[/MENTION] I have the Blues to beat the Tahs in a nail biter. My only logic is the blues are at home and I have never seen the tahs turn up in New Zealand. I have the chiefs to beat the highlanders. But I could easily see the landers winning. I think the game will be like a test match. I have the saders to beat 'yer Canes. That is the only game I will bet on. Let me know feedback.
TAB odds Blues the favourites payng $1.70 Saders the favourites I think paying $1.49 Highlanders the favourites I think paying $1.65
I think if Messam joins the chiefs then they win the whole thing. I will place a bet on them now. He may be an average all black but he is a legend in super rugby. He also means a lot in the dressing room.
[TABLE] <tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">[TR] [/TR] [TR="class: yellowBkrd, bgcolor: #FEF8DF"] [TD="class: col1, colspan: 3"]13 Jul 16 21:50[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col2, colspan: 3, align: center"]<acronym title="Online" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: none;">O</acronym>[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col3, colspan: 3"]2861 Outright Winner [/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col4, colspan: 3, align: center"]FPW[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col5, colspan: 3, align: center"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col6, colspan: 3, align: right"]$25.00[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col7, colspan: 3"]1 Chiefs @$4.25[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col8, colspan: 3, align: right"]$25.00[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col9, colspan: 3, align: right"]15 Jul 16[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: col1, colspan: 3"]13 Jul 16 21:49[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col2, colspan: 3, align: center"]<acronym title="Online" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: none;">O</acronym>[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col3, colspan: 3"]2001 Match Result [/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col4, colspan: 3, align: center"]FPW[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col5, colspan: 3, align: center"]Multi[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col6, colspan: 3, align: right"]$6.00[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col7, colspan: 3"]1 Blues @$1.72[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col8, colspan: 3, align: right"]$6.00[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col9, colspan: 3, align: right"]16 Jul 16[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: col1, colspan: 3"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col2, colspan: 3, align: center"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col3, colspan: 3"]2101 Match Result [/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col4, colspan: 3, align: center"]FPW[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col5, colspan: 3, align: center"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col6, colspan: 3, align: right"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col7, colspan: 3"]1 Crusaders @$1.49[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col8, colspan: 3, align: right"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col9, colspan: 3, align: right"][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: col1, colspan: 3"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col2, colspan: 3, align: center"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col3, colspan: 3"]2151 Match Result [/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col4, colspan: 3, align: center"]FPW[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col5, colspan: 3, align: center"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col6, colspan: 3, align: right"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col7, colspan: 3"]2 Chiefs @$2.25[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col8, colspan: 3, align: right"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col9, colspan: 3, align: right"][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: col1, colspan: 3"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col2, colspan: 3, align: center"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col3, colspan: 3"]ALL 3 TO WIN $34.60[/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col4, colspan: 3, align: center"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col5, colspan: 3, align: center"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col6, colspan: 3, align: right"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col7, colspan: 3"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [TD="class: col8, colspan: 3, align: right"][/TD] [TD="class: midColTabSpc"][/TD] [/TR] </tbody>[/TABLE]
The Tahs beat a very good Hurricanes last year in Welly but they just looked so poor last week at home. The Blues really looked good last week. The only issue I see is the Tahs is before the Brumbies so the play off hope is still alive for them when they play. I'd say Blues for now. I'm picking the Highlanders. The home advantage gets them home, only issue I have is the travel factor but yeah the Landers will outsmart the Chiefs imo. Maybe if Ngatai was back I'd sway to the Chiefs. Yeah I'd say the Crusaders will probably win although the problem is coming off an easy match like last week doesn't gauge too much for them. The Canes have a tendency to upset the Saders when they're underdogs and we look like we've got our shit sorted last week against the Tahs. The Canes are paying $3.20 now so the value is with them. Handicap is at +6 so probably what I'll hit up at this stage, I'll wait for lineups. Obviously I'm biased but I do reckon taking value out of consideration, an outsider would pick the Saders at home to win.
I'm keeping away from making any predictions on who could win the whole thing yet. A big factor will be who wins the NZ conference and who places where - a team that has to travel all over the place is doomed. Ironically placing higher might not necessarily mean an easier travel schedule.
Regarding the Highlanders outsmarting the Chiefs: I think Joseph is a fine fine coach. But Rennie has a better team. I also think you underrate Cruden. He is a very very very good 1st 5. He is the best 1st 5 in New Zealand at feeding his back line. He gets the whole line moving forward. I also don't know if you are rating Anton Leniert Brown enough. Even though Tamniavalu (spelling) is a bit of a fringe player.
That is tremendously shit compared to other bookies. Cruden is good yes, he fits the Chiefs well but I can say the same about Sopoaga and the Landers. It most certainly won't be a walk in the park and should be close but we all know what happened last time these teams played in Chiefs country (pretty sure everyone was doubting my Landers to win prediction too). The only NZ team the Chiefs have actually played well against is the Saders, both times. They're bloody good against overseas teams but they've been very average against their NZ counterparts. The Chiefs were notably stung big with injuries this season however. Anton and Seta are fine, they'll cause some havoc but they needed someone like Ngatai in the centre to read the game a bit better and control the game. Anton and Seta aren't that kind of pairing and I think the Landers should handle them. Ben Smith wins the back and the Landers win the wings but what I am most excited about is the forward pack battle. The Chiefs (haven't seen the lineup) probably win this battle on paper but the Landers forward pack just always turns up and does the hard yards, Sam Cane is shit and just goes missing - reckon that'll get pulled from this match.
