Super Rugby 2016

Charlie Ngatai says hello.

 

Both teams have some key players back (Naholo for the Landers). I don't think Ngatai will be as effective with Smith controlling the back.

I'd expect Sopoaga will be making McKenzie work and will still kick it back there.

Basically if the Landers stick to the immense defence they've shown, I don't really see the Chiefs being able to answer with as many tries as the Landers should get.

Chiefs scrum will still be poor IMO too.

From a betting perspective, the Landers at $2.75 is where the value is at. Spread is out to +5.5 and you you'll be able to get +10 at $1.50 probably. You'd be mad to put money on anything else IMO.

 

I think the key to the game is this Tamnivalu (spelling?). He is so volatile. He is either helping the Chiefs win or doing completely counter productive things like trying low low low percentage one handed off loads that hand over possession. He is a bit whet behind the ears but Rennie is a real coach'es coach. He actually you know coaches.
So he will have been working with the chap since last week and helping him develop. He can't turn around players that quick so yeah, I would say the chiefs will actually start to do better with Anton-Leniert comes on the field. Still on the other hand Tamnivalu could perform like he did against the canes. The Highlanders have an AB at 13 and some plumber of a player at 12. Ngatai and our 13 may coast through the gap all night.

I don't think there is any stopping the chiefs running game because unlike the Canes who got shut down by the Landers in the Super XV final, Cruden uses the kicking game more than BArrett and will turn the Landers around on their heels a few times so that they can't jam up with flat D to snuff out the Chiefs first phase ball.

Look for the battle of the 15s to decide who gets the AB gig in that position.

 

Cruden's kicking game hasn't been that much chop the past week or so. Barrett has actually kicked more than him.

Landers have Fekitoa at 12 not 13. Faddes at 13. Faddes is actually a really, really dangerous player so if Ngatai/ Seta aren't on to him, he'll easily slip through the gaps. His defence is nothing to be desired which I reckon would influence starting Seta who was fucking terrible last week.

Fekitoa's workload last week was immense and if he's firing he should carry Faddes' defence a bit. I don't see this being a walk in the park for the Chiefs like so many seem to be thinking. The Chiefs haven't played well in a good month or so which I think could show in this one. Even the Sharks exposed them and they played panicky rugby for large portions of that game.

 

In my minds eye Barrett has made plenty of "wipers kicks" and clearances from his 22, but Cruden has completed more tactical kicks from mid field positions. Tactical kicks are key. Just like running plays in the NFL set up the passing game so do kicks in rugby set up the running game.

I am expecting Naholo, Smith, Fekitoa to all be potent. It will be close to test match standard play. Both teams would be ranked 6th-7th in the world if they competed internationally.

"Even the Sharks exposed them"

This is not a good comment. Wait until you play them this weekend. They are missing 5 guys so you should win, but I predict you won't be saying "even the sharks" for the rest of the season once you watch the match on replay. If the Sharks had odds over $2,50 I would take a flutter head to head - but at $2.20 they are not worth it.

You underestimate just how good cruden is at steering the ship. Also remember the Landers should have conceeded 3 rolling maul tries to the brumbies and lost but Sam Carter didn't know the rules of rugby and points went begging.

Also that Japanese prop has strengthened the chiefs scrum - and also we don't have to go up against the canes scrum this week who are running rampant through the comp (I understand they got the better of the Lions front row).

 

Hope all is well with [MENTION=168]Fiery[/MENTION]

 

Barrett and Cruden are two completely different players so comparing them is probably irrelevant in a tactical kicking regard - all comes down to the team as well (the Canes aren't that tactical in that regard, never have been and probably never will be). Someone that you can compare to Cruden is Sopoaga and atm I think Sopoaga is outperforming Cruden. I do recall Cruden having an amazing match against (I forget) earlier on but Sopoaga has been quite consistent. Actually I'm probably looking more forward to that battle than the FB battle. Cruden needs to outplay Lima to secure that AB starting spot or I feel he could go down the ranks a bit. One disadvantage on Cruden and Barrett's behalf is their goal kicking (I don't count either of last week's good kicking % for both players because they were all easy kicks) - Sopoaga wins that battle and unless we have McKenzie at 15, we don't really want a poor goal kicker at 10.

The Canes should easily win this weekend against the Sharks - I note Lambie is back (bench) but you'd expect the Canes to get the better of a team that should be pretty tired. I got on the Canes when they were paying $1.80. I wouldn't even say $2.50 is value given the travel factor and the form of the Canes. Sharks were pretty poor last week as well - it was a poor game as a whole. That being said the Sharks will probably force more mistakes out of the Canes than any other team has managed as of late, so that should be interesting. Yes our scrum was lethal against the Lions BUT tbf to them the pitch was probably worse than the Rebels', every scrum was like a sandpit.

 

Nope - Landers are paying $2.75

Only bet I'd partake in is a Landers headstart (handicap) for your $2 odds.

 

7 points is fair imo.

 

What are we doing, $50? or?

I can't sure bet this since that's just slightly better odds (for us both) than the bookies so don't really wanna do the $100 because I rarely commit that much to such a bet.

 

Yep going under the radar a bit but will be interesting when they play the Chiefs again, play the Canes etc.

I put a 10er on the Saders to win by 29 or more points (enhanced odds) at $4.00 odds - easy $30 profit and profited $16 from the -17.5. All multis still in play too. Off to another good start!!!! Next game should be a goodie.

 

Nah don't want to go more than $50 preferably and yes we're on. That $100 has been covered by sure bets - so have profited even when I do have to pay you. Whereas the $50 this week can't be sure betted so if it loses, I'm down $50 from it. It's a solid bet though so that's why I'm prepared to take it - I was always gonna hit it with the bookies and now that we eliminate them we both benefit by having $2 odds on it.

Yeah may as well just keep a running tab until season end to cut down fees paid, Chiefs have to play the Saders again etc. and then there's playoffs.

 

And there we go folks, Saders have passed the Chiefs as top of table. All this talk about the Chiefs all season and the Saders have gone a bit unnoticed imo.