RWC 2015: Betting Thread

Discussion in 'Rugby Union Discussion' started by Rego, Sep 16, 2015.

  1. Squeaks ZW Poole

    Would be surprised if he started against Uruguay, you would think it might be the one game he gets off, hence my logic of him being a bad pick.
  2. Squeaks ZW Poole

    May be worth a few buck, but he already isn't playing against Japan so you're wrong there
  3. Rikkomas QG Goldenhaus

    Got me! I was unaware they'll keep out Le Roux, Etzebeth and Vermeulen
  4. Howe JHF Howe

    Scotland to make quarter finals at 1.57 - bit of a gimme. More chance of England/Australia exiting early

    France to make the semis at 2.50 - have a feeling, albeit based mostly on warm ups and literal size, that they will get up early on and win their pool

    South Africa to lose in the quarters at 2.37 - don't think they're playing well and will face either a confident Aus team or England at home

    The Field v NZ at 1.60 - I mean, there are a lot of other teams

    Winner to come from Pool A at 3.00 - Corollary to the above two really. The winner of Pool A will have a relatively simple route to the final and whoever finishes 2nd will have a fair crack at South Africa and NZ.
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2015
  5. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Still haven't decided who I'll choose for that try scorer promotion. Nailed it down to Savea or NMS I think. Would have jumped on NMS at $20 but at $10 it's tough. All about getting aa player that will hopefully score at least 5 tries first things first. Savea seems like the potential safer option - even in his poor form against the weaker teams a d will definitely start play offs matches. On the other end NMS is guaranteed at least to start the first 3 games so should pick a few up too. Argh decisions. Think I'll go Savea for the promotion. Just seems safer to get to at least 5 tries as he's guaranteed to play the play offs.
  6. Squeaks ZW Poole

    How is NMS guaranteed to start the first 3 games?
  7. Rego RS Hutchinson

    That aside, this multi for this weekend is appetising:

    England to beat Fiji
    Tonga to beat Georgia
    France to beat Italy
    Samoa to beat USA
    NZ to beat Argentina

    Paying $1.51
  8. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Naholo is out for the first 3 games at least. He's only played 2 games so ABs will want him to continue to show his form as well. He'll start against Argentina - strongest squad and you'd suspect the ABs would play him against Namibia and Georgia. I know they could shuffle things and play anyone anywhere for that game (Slade on wing etc.) But he needs game time. So should play 3 out of the 4 pool games. Savea is only really guaranteed 2 pool games (Arg and Tonga). Whether he's played in one of the other 2 I'm not sure. He does need the fitness though so maybe. Those games will be a wingers paradise, too bad we don't know Hansen's plans because it'd make the decision a lot easier.
  9. Squeaks ZW Poole

    I always see you quote incorrect facts around here, and you have done it again. I don't know what you have been reading but Naholo is meant to be good to go for the Georgia game. I would have thought they will want Savea to pick up some form before resting him against Tonga before the quarter final, though can never be too sure. Pretty much just saying you could be right and NMS could start the first 3, but it isn't guaranteed like you are trying to say with completely incorrect reasoning.

    Naholo should play against Georgia and then Tonga a week later and it's hard to say if they will put NMS on the left possibly or as you have stated perhaps Slade.
  10. Squeaks ZW Poole

  11. Rego RS Hutchinson

    I wouldn't necessarily say I quote incorrect facts - I was reading another source the other day that was saying Naholo was still very hit and miss for that Georgia game - things have obviously advanced since then.

    Regarding the 3 starts thing I would still be confident to say he should be awarded 3 starts. No way is Ben Smith starting all the Pool games and I think Hansen would be fucking stupid not to start NMS at fullback in a game (maybe even that Georgia game with Naholo on the wing) since he's a only other somewhat full-time fullback (yes I know we have Barrett and Slade that can slot back there too). If not then I think we should at least see him slot in at 11 at some stage. So I'll correct myself to guaranteed 2 starts with 3 also relatively realistic over the course of the cup. Plus probably a bit of bench action.

    Come play off time Naholo either starts or isn't in the 23. His lack of versatility makes him a poor benchy option - NMS on the other hand a perfect one. Which probably makes Savea the safer option.

    Regarding the Tonga game I read that Hansen was hoping to have the squad relatively strong for that one - can't remember the exact wording but it was all to do with reshuffling. Maybe read too much into it.
  12. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Yep here's what I was getting at regarding the Tonga game:

    After their first match against Argentina at London's Wembley Stadium on September 20, the All Blacks' biggest concern is another weak pool. Every player should see game time in the first two matches. From then on, cohesion and consistency will be the policy.
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2015
  13. Rego RS Hutchinson

    I really can't see Naholo starting 5 games straight either now.
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2015
  14. Squeaks ZW Poole

    Yeah I would say we will see a very strong side first up and then almost a complete second string line-up for the quick turnaround with Read (as captain) and Savea and NMS the only players remaining in the starting XV. Maybe Conrad as well but I think he will be okay with playing two games (as I don't think they will send him out against Tonga).

    Regarding Naholo if he performs well enough against Georgia and Tonga then it will be very interesting to see what happens. There's no place on the bench for any backs, unless injuries come into play it will be TJ, Barrett and Fekitoa/SBW (take your pick on that). If both Naholo and NMS perform and Savea doesn't I work love to see the selectors reward that and go Naholo right wing and NMS left. But if Savea steps his game back up then it is a straight shoot out between Naholo and NMS for a starting position or a crowd seat. NMS having no bench chance either as Barrett or Slade have fullback covered from the bench.

    Giving NMS a run at fullback is an interesting one cause the chances of Carter and Smith (who never gets injured, touch wood) going down within one game is highly unlikely, so I don't think they would do that instead they will use the time to give Barrett runs at fullback for when he comes on in the last 15/20 of the semi/final and wins it for us ;)
  15. Rego RS Hutchinson

    My logic of getting NMS to start at FB in a rest game for Smith isn't in case Carter and Smith go down in one game but if Smith gets injured, I think it gives the ABs something to think about if Smith was to get injured during the cup i.e start Barrett or NMS at FB. I'd rather the latter, NMS is a better FB and that's saying something because he's a good winger. You have to remember, first things first Barrett is our backup 10...with Naholo now expected back for that Georgia game, it'd be a good game to play NMS back there. With NMS starting the first 2 games, it'd seem kind of silly to rest him for the last 2 pool games in case Naholo doesn't perform well and not look like a play off spot contender. I think we should see him move back there at some stage if he's not starting there at some stage.

    Also no way will Savea not start in the play offs provided he's fit. I like what you're getting at but Hansen just won't do that.
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2015
  16. Squeaks ZW Poole

    Injured as in just for a week? Otherwise they would just bring Dagg in if his tournament was over, oh god that would be awful!

    NMS a better fullback than Barrett? Hmm... I don't know about that one. I know not many people would agree as I haven't seen a huge amount love for Barrett of love but people have such short memories, the guy has done amazing things at international level. Most of those coming from fullback as he has never had many chances at first five.

    Yeah my predicition is NMS plays on the left wing either against Georgia or Tonga (Saveas rest match), I would say Georgia, which doesn't give them the chance to give him a go at fullback as he too needs a rest match. Obviously he could get 20 minutes there or whatever if they wanted but I can't see him starting there at all.
  17. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Well I just put the 25 euros on Savea (he's dropped to $5 odds now sooo before he drops anymore) - just seems like the safer option to get at least 5 tries because of game time. No way would I ever bet that kind of money on a top try scorer if that promotion wasn't in place. Have also put 5 euros (each way) on NMS just to put my mind at ease - would spew if he did become leading try scorer. The each way is Top 5.
  18. Rego RS Hutchinson

    NMS playing at FB is what got him into the ABs (he played the majority of his code there this year and even last). I don't have a short memory with Barrett. As I've said many times he just hasn't been the same since he picked up the leg/ hip injury late in the Super 15. I really hope he's past it. The last time he played a few weeks ago for the Naki you could see it wasn't 100% right still.

    Edit: yeah injured as in not out for the cup - so no replacement call up.
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2015
  19. Rego RS Hutchinson

    Deposited $30 into my betting account a few days ago, have worked it up to $75 so that'll be my bankroll for the Cup - with the exception of the try scorer bets which was on another site.
  20. Weeman27bob BE Force

    Cheeky £10 free bet on Sexton to be MOTM has come off, so that's a nice £60 profit.

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