Round 9 Tips and Discussion

Yeah I really think this is a bit of a false peak for the demons right now. There's a bit of pain in there for the next 2 seasons still as you really lack the elite top end kids barring Hogan and perhaps Viney really.

Of the 22 we saw today

Riley, Matt Jones, Pedersen, Cross, Vince, Dawes, Dunn, Terlich, Bail and Jamar are all at peak/if they've got improvement left I can't see it/list cloggers

Then you've got the Watts, NJones, Garland, Howe, Grimes and McDonald group who are all good players and have years ahead but only a little bit of improvement left

Then it's the Tyson, Viney, Toumpas, Gawn, Salem and JKH who have upside but also have risk. Tyson and Viney look safe bets to be very handy players but the rest could improve heaps or only a little, there's still a lot of risk there and none of the non Viney/Tysons look to be elite juniors.

And there's not a huge amount sitting in the reserves either. Barry, Blease, Byrnes, Clisby, Evans, Fitzpatrick, Hunt, Kent, McKenzie, Michie, Nicholson, Spencer, Strauss, Tapscott, Trengove, Georgiou, Harmes and King all vanilla mid range players/speculative punts/spuds/limited upside/limited role players

Hogan, Frawley and perhaps Jetta the only real relevant blokes outside the 22 for mine.

Don't get me wrong, I wish nothing but success upon the Demons. I just think they're further away from both being a genuine contender and a 'non making up the numbers' final contender than any other side in the comp barring perhaps St Kilda (though I do like some of the spec punts on their list a lot more than Melbournes. Melb have a lot of 21-24 year old former high draft picks who aren't very good but still have a little side. I'd prefer St Kilda's raft of 18-20 year olds who mightn't have been elite draft picks but have time on their side)

The only players on the Demons list I think would be set (i.e. 22 game a year players) components of a premiership contender are

Cross, Frawley, Garland, Jones, Grimes, McDonald, Howe, Tyson and Vince. Jetta (if the Adelaide game is reflective of where he's at), Watts, Dunn, Dawes and Jamar could find themselves relevant depending on the situation but even then.

Of the 9 names I listed only Jones and Frawley I'd say are top 8-10 players of a premiership 22. Obviously delving into kids but the only players I really think could be that level who aren't already are Hogan and Viney. Salem and JKH have time but I'm not confident.

In short, I really do think there's a lot less emerging talent on that list than meets the eye. Immediate results are great but I can't see the list growing at the rate bottom lists seem to barring some unexpected breakouts. Lots and lots of deadwood.

 

Yeah I think you've misread the intention of my post

I don't think anyone will dispute that as well as mental factors, to get to a grand final and win it you need around 5 stars and 15 components of a winning team. Can only really carry 2-3 role players/fringe spuds.

I'm just saying I don't know where those players will come from. I'm more saying ask 'will this player make/make in the future the top 20 at Sydney, freo, hawthorn or port?' - and how many actually have a yes there? If you remove cross and vince from the side I reckon you'd only have one win too. Players like that kind of give a bit of false hope with the future as they won't be around for it.

By your assertion I can't rule out max king. But I think you'll agree I can't really mark him down as a star of the future. On the balance of probabilities a first year rookie draftee is unlikely to be a star. He's a key forward who relieves in the ruck ftr, saw him plenty in the tac and champs. Jkh I agree could be good but he's gone exactly how I'd have expected anyway, was always gonna be relevant immediately though he was a good pick. Agree with Tyson, could well be elite.

My point wasn't much more than you're short 4 elite players and 8 components of a successful team. To get them you're gonna need some out of the blue breakouts from blokes nobody expects them from or have ALL of the kids inc toumpas become relevant. Just can't see it, can't see the current list ever doing much, need some good trading and great drafting

 

Yeah, they always do. Would never have called Lynden Dunn likely at all a year or three ago

That said they list of 'vanilla' at melb relative to 'relevant players' is a lot more. You've got less top end to start with so while undoubtably some gems will come from the vanilla you'd need a disproportionate amount to be relevant

 

Ablett is just astounding