New Sim

Right, I'm trying to build the sim for Eds in Excel. Not fun, but hey-ho. We'll get there eventually.

At the moment, I've got the type of play being randomly generated.

1/20 chance of Line out to Open Play
1/20 chance of Line out to Maul
1/20 chance of Knock On --> Scrum
2/20 chance of Scrum
8/20 chance of Ruck
2/20 chance of Kick in Open Play
1/20 chance of a grubber kick
1/20 chance of a Forward pass --> Scrum
1/20 chance of a Line Break
1/20 chance of a Line Break leading directly to a try
1/20 chance (not yet allocated)

Are there any significant types of play I'm missing? Do these probabilities sound reasonable?

Also, I'm going to give a small advantage (say, 5%) to the Attacking team at Line Outs, Scrums and Rucks before calculating who actually has the better chance to win the set piece. Sound reasonable?

 

C'mon, a bit more help than that would be... Helpful?

 

Hmmm. Yes, maybe a 5% bias to the attacking team is too small. I'll set it at 25% and see how it works out.

 

Oh, and the 1/20 Line Break leading to a Try means no checks need to be passed. That's an automatic try right there. The other 1/20 Line Break (not leading directly to a try) means that there will be an Attack vs. Defence check at that point to determine whether a try is scored or the play leads into another phase.

 

Now, here's the skills I think I should use for each type of play:

ATTACKING TEAM

Code:

			Attacking							
Line Out to Open Play	Handling * Passing * Technique * Jumping * Offload		
Line Out to Maul	Handling * Passing * Technique * Jumping * Strength * Mauling	
Scrum			Strength * Technique * Stamina					
Ruck			Strength * Technique * Stamina * Rucking * Crash Ball		
Kick in Open Play	T Kicking * Speed * Kick Catching * Jumping			
Grubber			T Kicking * Speed * Technique * Wide Attack			
Line Break		Wide Attack * Offload * Side Step * Speed * Stamina * Passing	
Open Play		Speed * Stamina * Crash Ball * Handling * Wide Attack	

DEFENDING TEAM

Code:

			Defending
Line Out to Open Play	Handling * Passing * Technique * Jumping * Strength
Line Out to Maul	Handling * Passing * Technique * Jumping * Tight Defence * Mauling
Scrum			Strength * Technique * Stamina
Ruck			Strength * Technique * Stamina * Rucking * Tight Defense
Kick in Open Play	Jumping * Strength * W Defense * Kick Catching
Grubber			Speed * Strength * Handling * Technique
Line Break		Stamina * Speed * W Defense * Strength * T Defense * Handling
Open Play		Speed * Stamina * Crash Ball * Handling * Wide Defense

For line outs, I will just sum the specific skills for players 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8
For scrums, I will just sum the specific skills for players 1-9
For all other plays, I will sum the skills for the whole team
I'm obviously missing penalties at the moment, thinking about it.

 

It's now 1/23 since adding in Penalties and Chip & Chase into the option. Without massively expanding the work I have to do, it'll have to stay at 1/23. However, once I've finished the building of the engine, we'll run a few simulations to see how realistic the results are.

Good point, but it's so rare that unless there's a really big demand then I'm gonna make an executive decision and leave it out.

 

Made some progress today, but really need the player stats sorted so I know whether my formulas are coming up with reasonable outcomes. Anyway, once that's done I reckon I'm at most a week of half-arsed work away from making a working sim. Wouldn't be great stats output though.