Home town advantage 'scientifically' proven

Discussion in 'Rugby Union Discussion' started by Hurricane, Jul 23, 2014.

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  1. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    http://www.superxv.com/43135/1/super-rugby-travel-factor-is-worth-10-points#.U88riPmSzIk
     
    Hurricane, Jul 23, 2014
    #1

  2. HeathDavisSpeed HT Davis

    Remember, this is all theoretical. Sounds like he's been drinking some of what you drink. Neutral umpires wouldn't work in cricket under the same assumptions. Sure, there are games where the referee's decisions look biased (to an equally biased eye) but I will never accept that there is an immediate subconscious bias which sporadically appears when the referee steps onto the pitch.
     
    HeathDavisSpeed, Jul 23, 2014
    #2

  3. Jabba HJ Bots

    There'd be an element of bias towards the "stronger" team but subconsciously favouring home sides :lol:

    I believe home crowds influence the referee it's not his own fucked up brain, therefore his decisions are based on how vocal the crowd are and he will be aware of what he is doing.
     
    Jabba, Jul 23, 2014
    #3

  4. Athlai JJD Heads

    Scientifically theoretically possibly proven.
     
    Athlai, Jul 23, 2014
    #4

  5. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    This is scientific based on 5 years of analysis and the guy has a PHD.
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2014
    Hurricane, Jul 23, 2014
    #5

  6. Cribbage RG Cribb

    Yeah, but if you read the article, all he's really "proven" is that home ground advantage exists, and that travelling increases that advantage.

    The causes of this are nothing more than speculation. They're not proven at all.
     
    Cribbage, Jul 23, 2014
    #6

  7. jazman84 JM Eightyfour

    In what though?

    To come to a concrete conclusion he'd have to have a PHD in psychology, statistics and climatology.
     
    jazman84, Jul 23, 2014
    #7

  8. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    he's a sports scientist.
     
    Hurricane, Jul 23, 2014
    #8

  9. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    I did my own analysis that I published earlier that showed that the ABs get awarded more penalties than the visiting teams when they are at home. That is proof enough.
    If I ever have enough free time I will do the penalty count for the whole super rugby season.
    Amongst most rugby pundits and coaches penalty counts are taken as an indicator of both discipline and refereeing even handedness.
     
    Hurricane, Jul 23, 2014
    #9

  10. Cribbage RG Cribb

    There's no way that proves it isn't just this:

     
    Cribbage, Jul 23, 2014
    #10

  11. HeathDavisSpeed HT Davis

    Which could be down to many, many variables - not just refereeing bias. Explain to me why this would be so much more important in rugby than rugby league, football or cricket.

    Your PhD reference even says that this is theory and not proven.
     
    HeathDavisSpeed, Jul 23, 2014
    #11

  12. Athlai JJD Heads

    It could also be explained by touring teams giving away more penalties due to the pressure put on them by the home crowd.
     
    Athlai, Jul 23, 2014
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  13. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    We are all agreed here. Except for the part about the referee being aware he is being influenced by the crowd. If he was aware the crowd was pressuring him into decisions he would resist the pressure and be more neutral.
     
    Hurricane, Jul 23, 2014
    #13

  14. HeathDavisSpeed HT Davis

    No we're not.
     
    HeathDavisSpeed, Jul 23, 2014
    #14

  15. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    Yeah this is tough to debate against - you are right it could be due to other variables. It is just my opinion and the opinion of a revered sports scientist with a PHD that it is subconscious ref bias.

    It does happen as well in basketball according to my friend who is a big fan of that sport.

    Cricket umpiring is less complex than rugby reffing and is more cut and dry. There are 80 different rules that apply at the breakdown. That means that basically there is a penalty happening at every breakdown. It is just up to the ref whether he wants to blow the whistle and for what.
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2014
    Hurricane, Jul 23, 2014
    #15

  16. HeathDavisSpeed HT Davis

    Prime example of an oxymoron.

    I can understand your opinion but trying to state it as proven fact is a misrepresentation of reality. Your PhD guy makes this clear by using caveats like "could" and "theoretical". This is where you and Mr. PhD are different.
     
    HeathDavisSpeed, Jul 23, 2014
    #16

  17. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    The evidence is mounting and there is what's known as external validity for the belief in home town bias.
    Internal validity is where the specific study proving something is 100% conclusive and it is tough to argue with it.
    External validity is frequently used in academic circles and it occurs where there are many inconclusive studies that all point in the same direction.

    Expert "opinion" by the way can be evidence so counts as data point.
     
    Hurricane, Jul 23, 2014
    #17

  18. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    Also I realise it it not conclusive and I acknowledge that but you get more clicks on a thread if you make the headline dramatic.
     
    Hurricane, Jul 23, 2014
    #18

  19. Cribbage RG Cribb

    The headline is fine though. Denying home town advantage would be crazy. The controversial part of it is extrapolating it to what you have about the subconscious of the referees, and that's not in the headline.
     
    Cribbage, Jul 23, 2014
    #19

  20. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    Well isn't that the only place where I said anything was proven will have to re-read my posts now. Either way there is some proof for it. And it wasn't me that did the extrapolation it was him in the article I just chimed in.

    Edit- I did say there is enough proof. And for me there is. There is some proof in the penalty count data.
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2014
    Hurricane, Jul 23, 2014
    #20
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