Finals Week 3: Dereks v Flying Porcupines

Odds:

Dereks: 1.50
Porcupines: 2.50

 

Code:

FB:	T. Jonas		R. Thompson		L. Henderson
HB:	H. Hartlett		A. Rance		B. Reilly
CE:	J. MacRae		B. Ebert		R. Sloane
HF:	M. Wright		J. Watts		T. Mitchell
FF:	TT. Lynch		J. Daniher		J. Westhoff
RK:	N. Naitanui		N. Fyfe			T. Rockliff
IC:	R. Henderson		L. Ball			D. Swallow
SB:	L. Neale

Tactics:

- If Kornes goes to Fyfe move him permanently into the forward rotation (with Rockliff remaining part of the midfield rotation). If Kornes goes to Rockliff and shuts him down switch Fyfe back into the middle for Rockliff a qtr later. Keep switching if Kornes restricts one.
- Rockliff to form part of the forward rotation at the first change with Ball and MacRae being part of the midfield. David Swallow to form part of the defence
- Switch Westhoff and Watts from mid to forward if either are underperforming. Switch anyway at HT.
- Move Westhoff/Watts into a loose man if necessary.
- Wright to tag if someone getting off the leash; move Rockliff to a flank. If dangerous small back forward tag.
- Jonas to take Karnezis and cover Henderson if he moves fwd
- Henderson to move fwd if need be
- Switch R. Henderson (Def rotation) and T.T. Lynch if either failing at HT
- Swallow/Hartlett (one of) to play looser after QT
- Rory Thompson ruck relief. If Henderson already back then use Daniher/Westhoff
- Westhoff to swap with MacRae if either are floundering. If Westhoff flounders on a wing swap with Watts
- Activate Neale 5 mins before 3QT for worst performing player who isn't a vital KPP

 

Updated. Henderson moves back to give me an extra tall. Also slightly edited the defensive instructions and rockliff's instructions.

Theo: Rockliff will be moving forward at the first interchange. Do you want Cornes to go to defense and follow him?

 

Another small update. Decided the Westhoff experiment probably wouldn't work in a finals environment so made a small change there. Thought I'd let you know in case that changes your tactics #catandmouse

 

#catandmouse

 

Yeah it's good because our backlines and forward lines are nearly perfectly matched.

Both of us have three key forwards and backs (Watts/Daniher/Hoff v Bruce/Trengove/Merrett and Jones/Butch/Hurley v Thompson/Rance/Henderson) and one kind of 'half key half non key' forward and back (Jonas v Karnezis and Grimes v Lynch)

Will be interesting to see how it pans out. Think Westhoff will get on top of Bruce though.

For the record I'll have Thompson on Jones, Rance on Hurley and Henderson on Butcher with Rance and Jonas swapping if need be.

 

Pre Match Analysis:

Key forwards:
Westhoff, Daniher and Watts
v
Hurley, Jones and Butcher

Neither are fantastic units if truth be told. Westhoff > Hurley by enough to be relevant but Hurley's still the second best of the 6. Daniher fits into my structure well and I rate him above Jones (defensive efforts/workrate/agility > contested marking ability) but the sim has them similar. Watts and Butcher are both pea hearted shit cunts and while Butcher's good for defensive pressure Watts is probably a better player when played stay at home forward:.

Dereks: 6/10
Porcupines: 4/10

Key defenders:
Merrett, Trengove and Bruce
v
Thompson, Rance and Henderson

Offensively my trio offer a bit more; Henderson and Rance do like to run especially the latter but defensively Merrett and Trengove are more sound. That's not to say Thompson especially isn't sound but it is to say Merrett is just better. My third defender >>> Bruce by enough to make up for it. Defensively I'd say as a unit they're equal but Bruce is a bit of a liability which evens it up

Dereks: 7/10
Porcupines: 7/10

Small Forwards: (If you'd call them that)

Lynch, Wright, Mitchell and Rockliff
v
Lewis, Kommer, Karnezis and Blair

None of these forward units really offer much of a goalscoring threat. I think either team would take 6 goals between them. Lynch is a better player than Karnezis and probably the best pure forward of the bunch (but not player) and I'd prefer Wright to Kommer; Wright's a little error prone and I do think he's a better midfielder despite not playing that way at AFL level. Kommer's probably marginally better when forward tagging but both are good at it but Wright offensively offers more at ground level and up the ground. Lewis and Rockliff are both capable defensive forwards and probably more the 6th forward who plays as the extra midfielder and as mids go both are rather natural forwards but I'd give Rockliff the edge and Blair against Mitchell, well, Mitchell's the better player but Blair's the better forward. Both lines are makeshift at best and going with the 'sydney' strategy of filling the small fwd gaps with extra mids but both seem to be working.

Dereks: 7/10
Porcupines: 4.5/10

Small Defenders:
Reilly, Hartlett, Jonas, RHenderson
v
Dempsey, Malceski, Grimes, Webster, Newman

A strange matchup really. Jonas is better in nearly every regard defensively than Grimes but as far as the other starters go Dempsey's better than Reilly and Malceski is better as a defender than Hartlett. Both offer more defensively and offensively are at least equals if not better. Moving into the bench starters and Henderson against Webster is a bit simple, Henderson's considerably better offensively and defensively neither are flash. Newman's a good option to have and will be probably better than whoever out of swallow/westhoff/watts ends up there.

Dereks: 4/10
Porcupines: 5/10

Midfield:

MacRae, Ebert, Sloane, Ball, Fyfe, Swallow, Neale
v
Conca, Foley, Cornes, Swan, Shuey

It's a shallow midfield from the Porcupines. Swan and Fyfe aren't dissimilar. Swan's probably better but Fyfe can break open a game. Shuey doesn't have a derek comparison but is probably less reliable but more of a gamebreaker than any of the derek toilers. Swallow probably the best one and while Swallow's nice I'd marginally prefer Shuey for a game like this. Kornes offers a point of difference as a run with player capable of impacting offensively while doing so and is better than the Derek stalwart, Ball. From there it gets a bit pro-derek though with Conca and Foley being rather bad, especially the latter and Sloane, MacRae and Ebert all being considerably better through the middle. Perhaps the top end of the Porcupines is debatably marginally better but the rotation/lesser lights in the middle of the Dereks smash those of the porcupines. Porcupines also lack the midfield rotation and will likely see a Webster type play time in the middle due to the excess of defenders.

Dereks: 8/10
Porcupines: 6.5/10

Rucks:
Warnock and Kreuzer
v
Naitanui

Naitanui individually is better and will marginally beat Kreuz at the tap and smash him at the ground but he'll lose to Warnock tap wise but annihilate him at ground level. Weight of numbers will see Naitanui constantly flagging against a fresh opponent though unless Thompson/Hoff cover a lot of ruck time to which Porcupine's 2nd ruck > Dereks.

Dereks: 6/10
Porcupines: 8/10


Interested to hear what others think though

 

Yeah I agree with that. Grimes certainly is more adept at handling a lynch type while Bruce handier on a bigger type. I rate Butcher but he's done sfa at AFL level offensively to justify being considered anything better than mediocre. Is up and down like a yo-yo at state level too.

I reckon you've just got to contain my midfield. My defence has been rather shaky all season but the fact that I've probably got the best/deepest midfield rotation (my 6th best mid isn't much worse than my best) going around means you'll be flagging there. Conca/Webster/Lewis/Foley is a pretty poor back end to the middle and it'll be there I reckon you'll be exposed if you lose. If you win you're going to want Conca and Foley and whoever fits as the midfield rotation (if it's Lewis you're down a forward. It'll have to be a defender so Newman/Webster/Malceski or Dempsey) to get at least 65-70 touches between them while you'll want to keep MacRae, Ebert and Sloane to less than that which will be a tough ask.

Most of my midfielders really excel in work rate and finding space; I think transition is a major strength of mine as Sloane/MacRae/Ebert and Fyfe are all major mark winners and excellent at finding space and contributing to the movement from attack to defence. I've typically won mark numbers by 30+ in ever game as all my small forwards bar wright love finding uncontested marks and nearly all my midfielders bar ball do too. If you can bring the marks to within 10 for the game you'll win, IMO.

 

Ok then

the 2nd qtr in this has to be the weirdest qtr I've ever seen

Dereks 17 scoring shots to 1

 

my four tall fwds have 63 touches between them at ht

time to rework some matchups

 

pretty much one quarter. the rest were pretty even

just wtf really. wasn't like anyone good was having a rest either and the wind was only slight

 

Just think the ball seemed to stay mainly in my half of the ground. the 7 blokes who played defence for me all day at 65 touches combined; they weren't getting it. Just seemed to be my mids/forwards that worked really well. I can't for the life of me explain why watts and daniher are doing well as Daniher isn't even as good as Dawes according to the db and Watts isn't much chop either so it must be situational.

I think having Kornes follow Rockliff forward really, really hurt. Dereks midfield could easily cover the loss of Rockliff. Porcupines needed Kornes offensive threat... Swan, Shuey and a bunch of C/D graders just couldn't stand up to Fyfe/Ebert/Sloane/Swallow/MacRae/Ball as a unit.

Warnock was smashed 14-3 by Naitanui in the first quarter so I made the change and Kruze spent more time in the ruck which limited Naitanui a bit more. Warnock seemed to come into it a bit later and ended up with nearly as many taps from 35-40% ruck time though.

 

MVP:

5 - Ball
4 - Kommer
3 - Westhoff
2 - Daniher
1 - Fyfe