Melbourne Cup Discussion

How to find value in the Melbourne Cup

Tags:

• BAUER
• FLEMINGTON
• LUCA CUMANI
• MELBOURNE CUP
• PUNTING
• SO YOU THINK
• SPORTS BETTING
• ZIPPING

Brad Bishop
Written on Sunday, 31 October 2010 15:34



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Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup could have its shortest-priced favourite in more than 40 years, but there is still a way to make a hefty profit away from So You Think even if the Bart Cummings-trained champion does win.
Almost every year a longshot at $34 or better sneaks a top-three placing in the race that stops a nation, injecting value into trifectas and first 4s.
The past dozen years have produced some beauties. Last year it was runner-up Crime Scene at $41, Viewed won at the same price the year before, On A Jeune was $71 when he beat home all but Makybe Diva in 2005 and Zazzman was $101 when third behind the legendary mare in 2004.
Others to fill a place at massive odds recently are She’s Archie and Jardine’s Lookout (both $41 when second and third in 2003), Mr Prudent ($41, runner-up 2002), Give The Slip ($34, runner-up 2001), while in 1999 runner-up Central Park was $51 and joint third placegetters Lahar and Zazabeau were $141 and $101 respectively.
But while odds are a roughie will run a place on Tuesday, the trick is finding it.
As with most Melbourne Cups, there are some horses in Tuesday’s race you can discount for one reason or another and Buccellati, Master O’Reilly and Red Ruler look to fit the bill this year.
Import Buccellati ($251) simply hasn’t rediscovered the form he displayed in England and detests wet tracks, Master O’Reilly ($251) might have run fourth in the past two Melbourne Cups but isn’t going anywhere near as well and Red Ruler ($251) hasn’t run a place in Australia for two years so it’s unlikely he’ll rectify that in one of the strongest Melbourne Cup ever run.
The wet track probably puts Zavite ($126) in the same boat, but he has won twice at 3200m so he can’t be totally dismissed.
That leaves Campanologist, Zipping, Illustrious Blue, Mr Medici, Shoot Out, Tokai Trick, Bauer and Once Were Wild as the those at $35 or better with TAB Sportsbet.
Campanologist, Illustrious Blue, Mr Medici, Tokai Trick and Bauer are internationals and 13 raiders have run a place in the last decade, several at big odds.
Campanologist ($61) is raced by Godolphin, who also has the more highly-rated Holberg ($21) in the race, but interestingly Godolphin’s best Melbourne Cup results – second placings with Central Park and Give The Slip – have been achieved with outsiders.
The William Knight-trained Illustrious Blue ($51) is unbeaten in two starts at 3200m, but perhaps the biggest thing in his favour is the man who will do the steering.
Glen Boss is famous for riding Makybe Diva to three Melbourne Cup wins, but even when he doesn’t win he’s around the mark. Boss has finished second on Champagne (1998) and finished in the top five on a further four occasions.
Mr Medici ($51) has never raced at the distance, but does have the services of two-time winner Darren Beadman, and while Tokai Trick ($71) is a serious doubt on a wet track, he is from Japan.
The last time Japan was represented in the Melbourne Cup they ran first and second with Delta Blues and Pop Rock.
Bauer ($71) did run second two years ago and is trained by Luca Cumani, who has twice prepared the Melbourne Cup runner-up, so it’s brave to doubt him, but he has only raced twice since being nosed out by Viewed in the 2008 Melbourne Cup.
The three locals all have legitimate place claims.
Zipping ($35) might be a nine-year-old, but he’s racing better than ever as evidenced by his Cox Plate second to So You Think, and although he’s got 55.5kg, he’s still in well at the weights having won the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes since weights were released.
Shoot Out’s final Melbourne Cup hit-out, when fourth in the Mackinnon, was every bit as good as that of second favourite Shocking, who ran sixth, and he is trained by a man who has trained a longshot Melbourne Cup placegetter. John Wallace prepared Oompala to run third at $51 in 1994.
Gai Waterhouse, trainer of $41 chance Once Were Wild, has also come close to pulling off a Melbourne Cup shock, preparing Te Akau Nick to second at 160-1 in 1993.
So while we could be saluting a champion in So You Think, whose quest for an unbeaten spring is likely to be carried out at the most cramped quote since Tails failed at $3 in 1969, a few of the outsiders look a good chance of running a place.
Trying to narrow it down, Zipping probably looks the best of the longshots given he’s run fourth in two Melbourne Cups but appears to be in career-best form.
Shoot Out is massive overs considering he was close to Melbourne Cup favourite a couple of months ago, while Illustrious Blue and Campanologist shape as the best of the overseas raiders given those associated with them have a history of filling Melbourne Cup placings.
But if you’re going wide in your trifectas, it’s probably wise to throw in all the roughies mentioned because, if history is any indication, one of them will run a place.

 

Nailed it down to 20 each way on Descarado, 10 each way on Illustrious Blue for the mrs, Trifecta of So you think, Descarado and Americain. Probably chuck a few mysteries on as well.

 

I was fairly sure I was on Manighar last year, let me down.

 

Has Bauer been cleared? Heard it was going to be scratched.

 

So you think it'll win?