Road to World Cup 2015

Discussion in 'Rugby Union Discussion' started by Magrat Garlick, Dec 4, 2012.

  1. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    I also think Argentina vs Tonga will be a good game.
     
  2. GIMH GIMH Martyn

    Walkers Stadium is shit as well
     
  3. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    Can a mod rename this to road to the world cup

    Given recent games my current odds of who will win. This is not book maker odds this is my honest opinion. I will modify this when I have seen more games as time passes.

    As at Nov 17 2013

    England $3.50
    SA $4.00
    NZ $4.00
    France $6.00
    Wales $15.00
    Australia $50.00
    Anyone else $100+

    I have listed England as the favourites as I was taken with their goal kicker last night, and that skill is critical, and they are well coached. I liked how their backs rushed up on ours to stop us going wide. Give them manu back for that game and they would have won. If Manu is injured for the world cup I am pushing their odds out to $7.00 that is how much of a difference he makes.

    I put SA on the same footing as us and reckon they may play better in Europe than us. In fact if I was sure I wouldn't be accused of Ghambiring I would put SA at $3.80
     
  4. Weeman27bob BE Force

    Suggesting anyone other than NZ are favourites is ridiculous. One loss in the last 39 games speaks for itself.

    Manu isn't that good that we go from being a good team to the best in the world.
     
  5. Gazza GJ Weaver

    NZ will be <$2.50 favourites when the TAB NZ option comes out imo
     
  6. Weeman27bob BE Force

    [​IMG]

    This is what I can get at the moment.
     
  7. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    England beat us last year, and this year you nearly beat us missing key players, don't see anything ridiculous about it. If this next world cup was being held in New Zealand then I would make us clear favourites and wouldn't give England or anyone else the slightest chance.

    You are underestimating home field advantage. Remember NZ has never won a world cup away from home and we have always had a strong team.
     
  8. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    Then put $100 on England. I also said my odds are not book maker odds just the odds that I would honestly place on what will happen.
     
  9. Eds E Ames

    Yeah if I saw NZ at 4.00 I'd jump on. Definite favourites for me.
     
  10. The Boy Brumby ZJ Brumby

    French the value bet there.

    Let's not forget Oz, England and the Leekists are all in the same group.
     
  11. Howe JHF Howe

    Yeah and look at NZ's route - in a pool with Argentina, Tonga and minnows, with a very likely quarter against Ireland.

    England should just about be favourites to top their group imo but they're far more likely to finish second than France or NZ, and if they do then they get a quarter against SA.

    Betting on France to make the final looks very tempting since I can't see them playing South Africa or NZ before then.
     
  12. Cribbage RG Cribb


    Yeah I was looking at that. Even just the odds "to win their group"

    England 2.30 (despite still being favourites in their group :laugh:)

    New Zealand 1.02

    France 1.53


    Group of death for England. How did that happen anyway? Seems the third side in that group (Wales) is much stronger than the second sides in at least two of the other groups. Just inaccurate official rankings?
     
  13. BoyBlunder BOY Blunder

    Yeah we have a potentially horror route to the final... if we don't win our group we'll have SA then NZ in all likelihood. Which would mean facing 4 of the top 5 or 6 teams in the world in 6 games.
     
  14. BoyBlunder BOY Blunder

    Yeah basically. They needed to avoid a defeat in one of the autumn games last year iirc to avoid being unseeded. Then they went and won the 6 Nations a few months later.
     
  15. Starris ER Starris

    That's harsh... I'd like France to have a tougher root to the final... they seemed to look horrible just make it through pool play and to the final and then come alive in the final and almost cause a huge upset. Would rather any other team beat us than them.
     
  16. Howe JHF Howe

    It's just the draw have nfi where to put Wales, really. Underperforming against the top sides while carving up the 6N for years now means they struggle to rank properly, and in the year or so since the draw was made they've gathered a really, really good side on paper while Argentina and Ireland have declined.

    I think the groups would make sense if it weren't for them. You could make a pretty good case for a ranking right now of

    1. NZ (C)
    2. SA (B)
    3. England (A)
    4. France (D)
    5. Australia (A)
    6. Ireland (D)
    7. Argentina (C)
    8. Scotland (B)
    9. Samoa
    10. Italy
    11. Tonga
    etc

    but only if you exclude Wales from the process. At the time the draw was made they were right down in 9th (below Samoa but ahead of Scotland) which put them in the third tier. But then they stomped through the 6N and formed the backbone of the Lions team. Even now they're still behind Ireland without that having any sort of justification I can see.
     
  17. Cribbage RG Cribb

    Yeah, if Wales were in New Zealand's group then the whole thing would look a lot better. Being ranked below Samoa has caused the drama.

    As I said, "third side better than second sides in other groups".
     
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2013
  18. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    Probably yes my England odds may need to be pegged back a bit based on that draw.

    NZ are simply not a cinch to win it though.

    a) We lack depth at midfield and although Nonu has been a tank so far he is now 31 so injuries must catch up to him at some stage.

    b) Dan Carter is injury prone and Cruden is an erratic kicker.
     
  19. Hurricane JD Hurricane

    Our chances of winning have gone up significantly with SBW coming back.

    Our only achilles heel now is Cruden's kicking.
     
  20. Alex AJ O'Driscoll

    Seemed like you were already starting to make excuses as you Kiwis are scared the ABs will choke at a World Cup in another country. You guys should be about $1.40 given how dominant a season you've had.
     

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