Can a mod rename this to road to the world cup Given recent games my current odds of who will win. This is not book maker odds this is my honest opinion. I will modify this when I have seen more games as time passes. As at Nov 17 2013 England $3.50 SA $4.00 NZ $4.00 France $6.00 Wales $15.00 Australia $50.00 Anyone else $100+ I have listed England as the favourites as I was taken with their goal kicker last night, and that skill is critical, and they are well coached. I liked how their backs rushed up on ours to stop us going wide. Give them manu back for that game and they would have won. If Manu is injured for the world cup I am pushing their odds out to $7.00 that is how much of a difference he makes. I put SA on the same footing as us and reckon they may play better in Europe than us. In fact if I was sure I wouldn't be accused of Ghambiring I would put SA at $3.80
Suggesting anyone other than NZ are favourites is ridiculous. One loss in the last 39 games speaks for itself. Manu isn't that good that we go from being a good team to the best in the world.
England beat us last year, and this year you nearly beat us missing key players, don't see anything ridiculous about it. If this next world cup was being held in New Zealand then I would make us clear favourites and wouldn't give England or anyone else the slightest chance. You are underestimating home field advantage. Remember NZ has never won a world cup away from home and we have always had a strong team.
Then put $100 on England. I also said my odds are not book maker odds just the odds that I would honestly place on what will happen.
Yeah and look at NZ's route - in a pool with Argentina, Tonga and minnows, with a very likely quarter against Ireland. England should just about be favourites to top their group imo but they're far more likely to finish second than France or NZ, and if they do then they get a quarter against SA. Betting on France to make the final looks very tempting since I can't see them playing South Africa or NZ before then.
Yeah I was looking at that. Even just the odds "to win their group" England 2.30 (despite still being favourites in their group ) New Zealand 1.02 France 1.53 Group of death for England. How did that happen anyway? Seems the third side in that group (Wales) is much stronger than the second sides in at least two of the other groups. Just inaccurate official rankings?
Yeah we have a potentially horror route to the final... if we don't win our group we'll have SA then NZ in all likelihood. Which would mean facing 4 of the top 5 or 6 teams in the world in 6 games.
Yeah basically. They needed to avoid a defeat in one of the autumn games last year iirc to avoid being unseeded. Then they went and won the 6 Nations a few months later.
That's harsh... I'd like France to have a tougher root to the final... they seemed to look horrible just make it through pool play and to the final and then come alive in the final and almost cause a huge upset. Would rather any other team beat us than them.
It's just the draw have nfi where to put Wales, really. Underperforming against the top sides while carving up the 6N for years now means they struggle to rank properly, and in the year or so since the draw was made they've gathered a really, really good side on paper while Argentina and Ireland have declined. I think the groups would make sense if it weren't for them. You could make a pretty good case for a ranking right now of 1. NZ (C) 2. SA (B) 3. England (A) 4. France (D) 5. Australia (A) 6. Ireland (D) 7. Argentina (C) 8. Scotland (B) 9. Samoa 10. Italy 11. Tonga etc but only if you exclude Wales from the process. At the time the draw was made they were right down in 9th (below Samoa but ahead of Scotland) which put them in the third tier. But then they stomped through the 6N and formed the backbone of the Lions team. Even now they're still behind Ireland without that having any sort of justification I can see.
Yeah, if Wales were in New Zealand's group then the whole thing would look a lot better. Being ranked below Samoa has caused the drama. As I said, "third side better than second sides in other groups".
Probably yes my England odds may need to be pegged back a bit based on that draw. NZ are simply not a cinch to win it though. a) We lack depth at midfield and although Nonu has been a tank so far he is now 31 so injuries must catch up to him at some stage. b) Dan Carter is injury prone and Cruden is an erratic kicker.
Our chances of winning have gone up significantly with SBW coming back. Our only achilles heel now is Cruden's kicking.
Seemed like you were already starting to make excuses as you Kiwis are scared the ABs will choke at a World Cup in another country. You guys should be about $1.40 given how dominant a season you've had.