QPR and Reading almost certainly gone. Sunderland with their grim run in and managerial crisis will be the 3rd IMO.
Wigan vs Villa on the final day will be a huge match. I'd say Sunderland since they've got a pretty rough run in. QPR will get close to avoiding the drop but they'll obviously go down since they've left it too late. I can see them winning 4 of their last 7.
Champions league clearly. The revenue from it and the excitement of playing in the world's premier club competition is definitely far more important than an outdated cup which really is losing it's value. You're not going to attract quality players as a team who won the FA Cup but playing in champions league you definitely will.