2021 Ladder Predictions

Discussion in 'The Cesspit: Rugby League Discussion' started by morgieb, Feb 28, 2021.

  1. morgieb MC Burridge

    Right, now seems the time to do it.

    1. Canberra
    2. Souths
    3. Melbourne
    4. Sydney Roosters
    5. Penrith
    6. Gold Coast
    7. Newcastle
    8. Parramatta

    9. Warriors
    10. Manly
    11. Wests Tigers
    12. North Queensland
    13. Cronulla
    14. Canterbury
    15. Brisbane
    16. St George Illawarra

    I think you can probably seperate the teams into thirds.

    Canberra first because I think they have the deepest squad and likely won't be affected all that much by Origin. Not sure they have the quality to win the comp though.

    I think Melbourne are the best team but can they do it without Cameron Smith? Instinct says yes but I think it might take time to adapt to life without him. Souths have the best backline in the comp (IMO) and some fantastic attacking weapons but I query our pack, don't think Arrow was the right approach.

    Roosters will be up there again, though the halfback problem still hasn't been solved and no Cordner for half the season could really test their edge forward depth especially with Aubusson retired.

    I'm a bit off Penrith as things stand. They'll still be good but Mansour and Tamou are big losses that I don't think they've adequately replaced, and their depth seems worrying. It was already the least experienced side in the comp and their losses will only compound it further.....do they have the leaders to deal with a potential form slump?

    ~

    Gold Coast could be higher if Smith comes, but as things stand their side still seems pretty inexperienced and I think they're still a little while away. I still expect them to make finals though and in a couple of years time they'll be a true powerhouse.

    Newcastle's pre-season hasn't felt right and I still don't love their backline and they've lost a number of decent forwards but they've got too much quality to fall too far and the rest of the teams seem even worse.

    Parramatta is probably my boldest call, on paper they're a Top 4 side but their backline seems really alarming with how bad Blake and Ferguson went last year and there appears to be very little depth here. I wouldn't be surprised if they make me eat my words here but I smell a mini-implosion here. Only the fact that there's so many average teams this season keeps them Top 8.

    Warriors could easily play finals but I don't like their forward line balance and their spine still has a lot of holes in it. Don't rate Brown as a coach either.

    Manly are the other team on the fringe of finals. The problem here is that while their core is Top 6 worthy (Trobjevic x2, Cherry-Evans, Walker, Foran, Sironen, Aloiai, Taupau), there isn't much depth under it and a lot of their better players are a bit too injury-prone. Trobjevic tearing his hamstring again doesn't inspire confidence that we'll see a lot of him this season and as we saw last season, they're a Bottom 4 side without him.....

    ~

    Wests Tigers backline is potentially excellent and I think their forward line is decent enough, but that spine lets them down. If Liddle, Laurie and/or Simpkin really breakthrough I think they can play finals, but if Grant couldn't push a similar side towards finals, it's gonna need a big effort from their youngsters.

    The Cowboys could surprise if everyone was fully fit but as things stand their side is basically a promising spine that's been off the boil since 2017, a good middle third with little depth and not much else. Payten could give them a new direction but they're gonna need the 2017 Morgan and the 2018 Holmes to really do anything this season. And that doesn't sound too likely.

    Cronulla look in dire, dire trouble. They fluked a Top 8 spot last season through an easy draw and pinching a lot of tight encounters, but all I can see is a side full of past it stars and kids that haven't really kicked on. Add that their best player is out for the first two months and the coach apparently on death row and I see them really sinking this season.

    Canterbury I think will roll a few sides, but I don't really rate Allen and Flanagan as the magic bullets their spine needs and it'll ruin a quality backline. Forward line looks tough but lacks impact. Not sure what to make of Barrett's coaching either.

    Brisbane could surprise as every side bar the Titans in the last 15 years that went Top 8 -> spoon bounced back to the finals the year after (Bulldogs 07-09, Roosters 08-10, Storm 09-11*, Sharks 13-15, Eels 17-19), but while they won't have as dire of an injury run, I don't think they've reshaped the roster in the way they need to, and while their best forwards are class their back 7 just ruins it. Culturally the club is just shot too.

    Which leaves St Merge. Apart from Newcastle 2017 I don't think I've one side look so much worse than the rest in a long time. Their best player not only jumped ship he tore an ACL. Their forward line has hit a wall since mid-2018, their backline has some talent but not enough proven superstars. Griffin seems a really poor coaching choice for this team too. I honestly can see them only winning 2/3 games this season.

    ~

    Man there's a lot of shit this season.
     
  2. Boobidy BJ Gemmell

    Penrith
    Melbourne
    Canberra
    Souths
    Sydney Roosters
    Newcastle
    Gold Coast
    Parramatta

    Wests Tigers
    Manly
    Warriors
    Brisbane
    Canterbury
    North Queensland
    Cronulla
    St George Illawarra

    I agree with your top 8 at this stage.
     
  3. Cribbage RG Cribb

    Both grand finalists and Easts have declined on paper IMO. Whether Penrith end up declining in practice with so many young players is of course yet to be seen but I'd be surprised if they went quite as well. I think the gap I saw between the top three and Souths/Canberra last year has really been closed.

    Gold Coast in for Cronulla seems the obvious change to the top eight but there are always a couple of surprises.
     
  4. Magic AJ Parker

    I hear the Wests Tigers got a standing ovation at Leichardt today at full time.

    Guess that's their season done.
     
  5. Julian BJ Taylor

    Agree with most of what's been said in here so far.

    I'd actually have Melbourne and Canberra as my favourites to finish out in front after the home and away season. Thery both to me look as though their team will be stronger than what they fielded at the back end of last season (Souths getting Latrell, Arrow and Mansour in) whilst Canberra made the prelim without Hodgson, Guler, Horsburgh, Simonsson and Scott with an array of players out of position. Koloamatangi, Tatola and Su'a are incredibly important for Souths this season and if they continue to improve they should be a force. You could argue the loss of Bateman and Cotric is substantial but to me they seem replaceable, especially based on 2020 where Bateman was largely absent or quiet. Cotric is a great player but was underutilised anyway.

    I agree that Penrith might struggle to be as durable this season with less experience in the pack. TBig question mark on the back 3 as well and their metreage. Has Korisau ever made it through back to back seasons injury free either?

    Bulldogs, Sharks, Dragons, Broncos, will all be absolute dog shit.

    Warriors and Cowboys could be smokies to make a finals play. Very quiet pre-seasons and interesting coaching changes. If NQ go through without any major injuries they'll be in the top 8.

    The Titans. I bought into the hype last year. They've got some tremendous players. They've brought in some tremendous players. But fmd if the expectation on a bunch of blokes that have done nothing but string together a few wins at the back end of a season isn't ridiculous I don't know what is. I love so much of their team. Fotuaika especially went unnoticed by every pundit bar Andrew Voss for his debut seasons where he showed something special straight away.
    So just to be the contrarian I'm picking them to have an absolute shocker this year. While so much of their team has been underrated they've all of a sudden had a full swing in the media and I don't know if they'll handle it. Fogarty is being talked up as Cody Walker the 2nd. Tino as a future immortal. This team still has Rein or Clark as a hooker and incredibly inconsistent halves. I hope they do well but have a feeling they won't. A rough start to the season could be catastrophic given the attention they've gained in the media this off season.

    The Roosters will be nowhere near their normal level. They'll breeze past the bottom tier teams. But the halfback query, Verrills' knees, Cordner being out, Keary's concussion history and the loss of Aubusson will hurt them. That Aubbo suggestion may seem weird but that second row/centre hybrid utility is absolute Gold and will be even moreso with a supposed speeding up of the game again this season. Coaches may really sacrifice their bench rotation by having the 4th sub as just an injury reserve,
     
    Boobidy likes this.
  6. Magic AJ Parker

    Saw it last year with coaches picking outside backs on the bench. I made this exact post last week on the Chooks forum but I think the days of plugging holes in the halves or backline with a 2nd rower are gone.

    I could genuinely see us for example picking Verills as a hooker rotation and Keighran as a utility on the bench.

    I think there will be a genuine demand for quality utility players and it will go from being seen as a foot in the door type role to a genuine role in the team that clubs actively recruit and develop for.
     
  7. Boobidy BJ Gemmell

    I can see Brisbane doing that with Oates. Put him on an edge for 20mins if there are no injuries and he can cover outside backs.
     
    Jake likes this.
  8. jazman84 JM Eightyfour

    Oates 3 years ago sure, he has since turned to absolute shit though. He's lost his edge of athleticism that got him by as a winger, and he is unco as fuck. I can see him dropping the ball on a fair share of his hitups and have like 50% tackling efficiency on the edge.
     
  9. Sultan Pepper HG Emm

    1. Rabbits
    2. Raiders
    3. Storm
    4. Gold Coast
    5. Panthers
    6. Tigers
    7. Cowboys
    8. Roosters

    9. Newcastle
    10. St George
    11. Manly
    12. Bulldogs
    13. Broncos
    14. Warriors
    15. Parramatta
    16. Cronulla
     
  10. Lukic L Popovic

    I agree with the Parra slide as well. They were good, not great, last year and that's with several players having career years. They're definitely due a regression.

    Cronulla will come last.
     
  11. Magic AJ Parker

    There's no way Parra finish 15th.

    Their forward pack is still very good. Papali'i for Evans is a good upgrade and with Niukore due back next round they are too good to fail that badly.

    I also think Dylan Brown will have his break out season this year although didn't love the edge switch from Arthur last night. If they've been working on that all pre-season and it turns out to be a failure after half a dozen rounds and they switch back they'll be a long way behind the 8 ball.
     
  12. Sultan Pepper HG Emm

    Yeah it's a bit controversial, they've come out with expectations and totally flaked under Arthur before and the way they looked at the back end of last year has me thinking it'll only take a couple of early losses for them to shut up shop, I wonder if there's a few personality clashes in there or something because they just seem miserable. Definitely talent there though.

    The other predictions that are a bit out there are the Tigers, Warriors, Dragons and Roosters.

    -Tigers have now got a group that has totally bought in to what Madge is trying to do, because I think the way he's tried to shift them away from their old culture is brave. Feels to me like they either click and do well, or totally fall in a heap. So many enigmas in there.

    -Roosters I'm thinking just have to fall away a bit at some point, Robinson is a genius though so it wouldn't surprise me to have them make the 8 even in a re build or similar going forward.

    -Warriors I think will do it tough being based over here again, I think it'll take its toll.

    -Dragons I have no idea why I think they might actually do alright, there's no sign that they should, I think its just a pure contrarian punt. I think their might be some chemistry/romance there with Hook and the old baby Broncos and teams have succeeded despite Griffin in the past. Dufty, Lomax and a fit Bird aren't bad weapons and a few of the old forwards in their twilight might still have some kick left in the legs. If nothing else they shouldn't be impacted by origin outs? Spark a Titans esque run at years end? NFI really.
     
  13. Julian BJ Taylor

    I've mentioned this post in a couple of other places. I agree 100% here tbh. Having watched all the footy so far I think the likes of Keighran (I know he got injured), Watson, Marshall and co are going to be replicated on most benches by a few rounds in.
     
  14. Sultan Pepper HG Emm

    Tyrone May super sub
     
  15. AVA T Delonge

    Will Smith super dud
     
  16. Magic AJ Parker

    Based on Round 1 not a whole lot seems to have changed from last year.

    Storm, Panthers, Raiders, Roosters & Rabbitohs seem to be a cut above the rest. Storm are going to have to answer massive questions throughout the year as to how they perform without Smith but still have the best spine in the game, Panthers still very inexperienced but look the most adept side to handle the new pace of the game and probably have the most well rounded 17, Raiders seem to have an over-reliance on their forward pack in terms of creating points for them but it’s probably the best pack in the game and runs very deep Hudson Young is great find, Roosters still have the best backline in the comp for mine but their forward pack was off the pace last year and really missed Radley, Rabbitohs probably have the 2nd best spine but their forward pack struggles against the better sides which you can discount to an extent because Bennett is coach but an injury to a key forward and they’re in a lot of trouble IMO.

    Parramatta & Knights the best of the rest. Warriors the side who will slide into the 8 for mine, I like their spine and I think AFB has been one of the best 3 props in the game for quite a while now so he is a massive pick up for them.

    Titans were mightily disappointing, I expect they will improve throughout the season so many new signings and combinations to form first though. Wouldn’t be surprised if they made the top 8 but slightly behind the Warriors at the moment for mine.

    I’m still slightly optimistic about the Cowboys, they were absolutely horrendous last night. Comfortably the worst attacking performance I’ve seen from a First Grade side in years but at least there seemed to be some more resilience in their defence and you know they’ve got the talent to put it together in attack once they start to put their game together. I like Payten I just think he’s way too open to the media and will be prone to bringing a lot of unnecessary pressure on his side.

    Then you’ve got Sharks & Tigers. Both seem to be well prepared sides playing to their capability but they just don’t have the class to be competing with the top 8 sides consistently. Harry Grant is such a huge loss for the Tigers and whilst Laurie looked good today there’s got to be real concerns over their 6/7/9, I don’t know what they’ve got in terms of next man up either since they’ve moved on Benji and Reynolds.

    Dragons, Bulldogs, Broncos & Sea Eagles in no particular order form up the bottom 4 for me. I find it hard to see any of those sides jumping out of the bottom 4 to be honest but there’s always a surprise.
     
  17. Maroon_Faithful M Faithful

    Agree with most of that but I dont think Manly finish bottom 4. Totally different side with Turbo despite a much weaker forward pack. I think theyre 10th-12th. Maybe 9th.
     
  18. Boobidy BJ Gemmell

    How many rounds will the get out of him? He needs to get back and play 15+ games for them not to finish bottom 4.
     
  19. Maroon_Faithful M Faithful

    Eh maybe. 10 wins gets you above the bottom 4. Sometimes even 9 wins.

    Plus their draw aint that hard - they play Nth Qld, Canterbury, St George etc twice and only play Souths, Easts and Melbourne once.
     
  20. Sultan Pepper HG Emm

    Some yuge misses here. Wests are diabolical. Thank fuck they signed Laurie at least.
     

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