Standard post-Origin thread from this guy. Ladder as things stand: Sharks 34 Storm 32 Cowboys 26 Bulldogs 26 Raiders 25 Broncos 24 Titans 20 Warriors 20 Panthers 20 Dragons 20 Wests Tigers 18 Sea Eagles 16 Rabbitohs 14 Eels 12 Roosters 10 Knights 7 Run homes can be found here: http://www.nrl.com/your-clubs-road-to-the-finals/tabid/10874/newsid/99340/default.aspx Cronulla and Melbourne have already qualified, and it's very hard to see any of North Queensland, Canberra, Canterbury and Brisbane falling out. In contrast Newcastle and Easts can't make it, and Parramatta and Souths need everything to go right to do so. Out of the other six: Titans - pretty good run home, have four of the next six at home and only play two of the current top six - one of which is at home. Would have to be a pretty good shot of making the 8 at this point. Warriors - also have a good run home - all four of their remaining home games are against sides outside of the 8 - and assuming they win all four that gives them 28 points which is usually enough to make the 8 - but traditionally they tend to lose momentum hard post-Origin as sides start to normalise. Should make it in theory given their draw and the fact that they look the strongest on paper of the 7-12 sides but I'm skeptical they actually will. Panthers - pretty decent run home, their 3 home games are against sides outside of the 8 and they also only play one of the top six sides in their last seven games. Also have a pretty good shot. Dragons - their differential is absolutely awful, so they need to win more games than Gold Coast/Warriors/Penrith. It's not a horrible draw for them - four of their remaining games are against sides lower than them on the ladder, but they lost two winnable games by heavy margins and just look shot. Need to recover dramatically to put them back in the 8. Wests Tigers - one game behind the 7-10 sides, so need to outperform them. Worse, despite all their away games coming against bottom 8 sides, all their home games come against Top 8 sides, which is a lot trickier than the other way around. Longshots at best. Sea Eagles - similar case to Wests, but are further back still. They might have recovered in the last two weeks though, so it's not out of the question they surge late and push for the eight. More likely though is that their last 5 games prove too much for them. Will say Gold Coast and Penrith to make it through with the Warriors faltering in a couple of winnable games.
Comnsidering how wrong every NZ prediction has been from you this year we should be loading up on both Penrith and Gold Coast.
People going on about how Origin should be cancelled because it ruins the club season - this is a competition with Canterbury in the top 4 and St George pushing for finals football. #farcical
That's a bit rich coming from the world's worst sports pundit...officially, Julian. I get most of my NZ predictions spot on tbf. You just conveniently forget those ones. But don't worry I'll dredge this up if we lose this one and still make the 8.
Me Neither. I'd rather they started it in late April/EarlyMay; taking the place of the Anzac Rep round.
Looks like the Warriors/Panthers game is a bit of a play-off for the Top 8. Suspect the winner of the game makes the Top 8 but the loser misses out. Also think the Tigers are a chance of making a run and reaching the 8. Their run home - Eels (a), Cowboys (h), Titans (h), Panthers (a), Warriors (a), Raiders (h). Now that's not that easy, but it isn't impossible, either. Cowboys and Raiders look tough on paper but both games are at Leichhardt (where they're always a chance AFAIC) and in the former game the Cowboys won't have JT. And the other games are winnable at least. I also feel the Farah thing may galvanise them a bit and see them hit form hard. So while I'm not sure they actually will make the 8, their hopes look better than I gave credit for last week.
I don't think people should be fooled by Warriors pick up in form of late, they tend to start slow and seem under done early, pick up through the origin period when they generally have comparatively less interruption, then generally fizzle at the back end of the year, only occasionally carrying that form into a stronger finish and scrape into the lower half of the 8. I don't think they've got the brain power in the coaching box or the cattle to go on with it from here, even with a pretty soft draw. I think last weeks loss was huge for their season, they jag a miraculous come from behind win there they kick start something, instead they go down and I just don't think they have the mental toughness to play what may prove to be finals before finals against: Penrith (h) Titans (a) Tigers (h) with an away trip to North Queensland in between.
Actually looking more closely at it it could be a very exciting race for those final two spots: Penrith: Warriors (a), Chooks (h), Knights (a), Tigers (h), Titans (a), Manly (h) Warriors: Penrith (h), Titans (a), rabbits (h), Cowboys (a), Tigers (h), Eels (h) Titans: Sharks (h), Warrios (h), Tigers (a), Knights (a), Panthers (a), Cowboys (a) Tigers: Eels (h), Cowboys (h), Titans (h), Penrith (a), Warriors (a), Raiders (h) All playing each other, red denotes games favoured to lose, green favoured to win. Left Eels black because who the fuck knows how they'll turn out these last few weeks.
While I appreciate [MENTION=102]Sultan Pepper[/MENTION] 's obvious RL knowledge and analytical skills, this year will be different...I'm telling you
38 - Storm* 37 - Sharks 32 - Bulldogs 31 - Raiders* 28 - Cowboys 28 - Broncos 26 - Panthers 25 - Titans 24 - Warriors 24 - Tigers * Game in hand I don't see much of that changing bar maybe the Cows coming into the top 4 for Canterbury and that would be on for and against. Warriors still a chance of 8th but I having a feeling Titans will sneak in by the odd point after beating Wests. Tigers are absolutely cooked without Tedesco. If Canberra win tomorrow night they've sealed top 4 without doubt.
I can't believe the Bulldogs are basically one win away from securing a top 4 spot. Has there ever been a more awful team to make the top 4?
I have faith in the Cows top 4 still. The Dogs are shit - Brisbane will do them this week then Cows next week and we'll be sweet. I'm not too concerned by our form dip. The same thing happened this time last season - Green was flogging the players at training. While it's a risky strategy this year with our top 4 spot not guaranteed that is what I'm hoping is happening.
